How to Pick a US Open Winner

The stage of American legends, Pebble Beach hosts this week's U.S. Open, where Brooks Koepka is seeking to complete a historic hat-trick. Tiger Woods returns to the site of his most dominant victory, emboldened by his remarkable triumph at the Masters, while former champions Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are fancied to do well. 

With its small greens and modest yardage, Pebble is a different beast to many of the power paradises of today, which should make for an intriguing championship with a wider array of potential contenders. But what trends are there to look out for?

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Written in collaboration with Betway Sports, this article picks out trends when it comes to selecting a player this week.

How to Pick a Winner

When picking a winner at this week’s US Open, it’s best not to stray from the host nation.

Seven of the last 11 US Opens have been won by Americans, including each of the last four.

In fact, Americans have dominated the majors in recent years, especially those on home soil.

Of the last 10 majors dating back to the start of 2017, eight have been won by players from the USA, and they have won the last seven played in their own country.

So while you might like the look of Rory McIlroy – who is 8/1 in the golf betting to win after he surged to victory in last week’s Canadian Open – it’s advisable to steer clear of the Europeans.

This is not a tournament for the veterans, either.

No player over the age of 32 has won the US Open since 2007, when Angel Cabrera triumphed at the age of 37.

The USGA always looks to make this the most testing of all the major championships, which, unsurprisingly, usually results in a top player triumphing.

Of the 19 US Open champions since 2000, 16 were inside the top 40 of the official world rankings, including each of the last nine.

It follows, then, that you have to be in some sort of form coming in to the tournament if you hope to win it.

Webb Simpson, who triumphed in 2012, is the only winner since 2000 to be coming off a missed cut in his last start before the US Open.

This tournament is set up so differently to the rest of the events on the calendar every year, so it’s important to have had a few cracks at it in the past.

Eighteen of the last 19 US Open champions had previously made the cut at least once, while 17 of those had a top-20 finish to their name.

Finally, no player has won the US Open three years in a row since Willie Anderson in 1905.

The chances are, then, that Brooks Koepka will let someone else have a go this year.

Four players fit the bill this week.

Xander Schauffele (22/1) is 10th in the world rankings at the age of 25, and is coming off a T14 at the Memorial Tournament.

The American finished sixth at the US Open last year, and his best finish at the tournament to date was a T5 in 2017.

Justin Thomas (25/1) finished T20 at last week’s Canadian Open and has a couple of good US Open finishes to his name, including a T25 last year.

Rickie Fowler (25/1) is still yet to win a major, but his runner-up finish at the 2014 US Open suggests this could be his opportunity.

The world No. 11 finished T25 last year and is coming off a T14 at the Memorial Tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau (40/1) isn’t in great form, but he finished T22 at the Memorial Tournament in his last start and has a decent record at the US Open.

This article was written in collaboration with Betway Sports. For more, visit http://sports.betway.com/en/sports/cat/golf/.