Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 preview, picks & analysis

Another week and yet another Signature Event on the PGA Tour. This time it is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the iconic Bay Hill and this year’s version has a hard act to follow after the dramatic finish to the 2025 tournament. 

Russell Henley produced a stunning eagle at exactly the right time to pip Collin Morikawa, shooting a final round of 70 to win.

He trailed Morikawa by three shots with five holes to play but it all changed in a dramatic finish. 

Morikawa missed the green on the par-three 14th hole and took bogey, while Henley hit his tee shot to just inside 10 feet for birdie, cutting the deficit to one shot. And then came the par-five 16th.

Morikawa laid up from a fairway bunker and hit a wedge to 18 feet. Henley went through the green and had to chip from more than 50 feet away down the slope to a front pin. It was racing toward the hole when it smacked into the pin and dropped for eagle, giving him the lead for the first time when Morikawa failed to convert his birdie putt.

Henley finished with two pars as Morikawa, who closed with a 72, failed to catch him. "I was just so nervous. I can't breathe right now," Henley said. "It's so hard and difficult around this place. I just tried to stay really tough this week."

Henley had the best season of his career in 2025, culminating in representing the USA in a losing cause at the Ryder Cup. The win at Bay Hill was his fifth PGA Tour success and he has now collected more than $47m in prize money, making 230 cuts.

He also has six runner-ups, four thirds, 30 top fives, 59 top 10s and 119 top-25 finishes top his name. Apart from his win here in 2025, he was runner-up at both the Travelers and the Tour Championship and enjoyed 10 top-10 finishes, picking up more than $14m and finishing in a tie for second place in the FedEx Cup standings. He has made a steady start to this season.

Henley also has a claim to fame, becoming the first PGA Tour rookie to win on his debut in 12 years with a record-setting performance at the Sony Open in January 2013. He finished at 256 (-24), breaking the scoring record by four shots. It was the second-lowest score for a 72-hole tournament in PGA Tour history and secured him an invitation to The Masters and US PGA.

Morikawa did himself few favours last year, storming off without speaking to the media and it turned out to be a precursor for what was ultimately a pretty disappointing season. He seemed to suffer a hangover all year but finally put it to bed by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a dramatic birdie on the 72nd hole. And he will most definitely feel like he has a point to prove this week.

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses these guys play. It has plenty of proper rough, lots of well-placed bunkers and the greens are normally incredibly fast. It is a track that rewards accuracy and good iron play - two of Morikawa’s strengths.

It is also a course that should suit Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman, who won the 2025 Tour Championship and is the reigning FedEx Cup champion has been steadily building his form in 2026. After a sluggish start he is starting to put together some wonderful golf and will seriously fancy his chances this week.

Scottie Scheffler has already won once this year but his overall form has been patchy. Incredibly, he only made the cut at the Genesis Invitational on the number and has produced some sloppy golf by his own incredibly high standards. But a word of warning - he won here in 2022 and 2024 and admits that Bay Hill is one of his favourite courses.

Rory McIlroy is another former winner. He claimed the title in 2018 but will know that to have any chance of victory this week then he is going to have to drive the ball well. The world number two finished superbly at Pebble Beach and continued his fine form at the Genesis and he will be desperate to keep that form going as he begins to think about defending his Masters title at Augusta next month. He will know that history is very much against him but for McIlroy it is all about confidence. If his head is in the right place he can and does win anywhere.

Jacob Bridgeman has been quietly going about his business before his wonderful play at the Genesis.

After finishing second in the 2022 PGA Tour University rankings, he turned professional and began playing on the Korn Ferry Tour and in 2023 he earned his PGA Tour card after finishing 14th on the season-long points list.

He enjoyed a consistent season in 2025 with four top-five finishes, including a runner-up finish at the Cognizant Classic, which was good enough to get him into the Tour Championship. He was tied fourth at the Sony Open, tied 13th at the American Express, tied 18th at the Phoenix Open and tied eighth at Pebble Beach. It all meant he was trending in the right direction so his play at the Genesis Invitational should have surprised nobody.

The Course:

Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,381 yards and is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Bryson DeChambeau was an unlikely winner in 2021 because Bay Hill is a course that demands accuracy from the tee. The rough is thick and punishing and the greens are lightning fast.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Matt Every, in 2016 by Jason Day, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 by Rory McIlroy, in 2019 by Francesco Molinari, in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton, in 2021 by Bryson DeChambeau, in 2022 and 2024 by Scottie Scheffler, in 2023 Kurt Kitayama and last year by Russell Henley.

Form Guide:

Scottie Scheffler has had an odd start to the season. He has won once but has developed a habit of starting slowly. I don’t expect him to do so this week.

Prize Money:

The total prize fund is $20m, with the winner collecting $4m and 700 FedEx Cup points.

How to Watch:

Thursday, March 5, Friday, March 6, Sky Sports Golf, 4pm; Saturday, March 7, Sky Sports Golf, 3pm; Sunday, March 8, Sky Sports Golf, 2.30pm.

To Win:

Scottie Scheffler. Looking for third win here

Each Way:

Rory McIlroy. Showed some frailty with putter at the Genesis

Each Way:

Collin Morikawa. Finally back to his very best

Five to Follow:

Scottie Scheffler. Adores Bay Hill

Rory McIlroy. Needs to drive well to do win here

Collin Morikawa. Game is made for this course

Ludvig Aberg. Has been misfiring but that cannot last

Chris Gotterup. Really exciting talent