The US Open 2025 Preview, Picks & Analysis

I wish that I could make a case for an outsider to win this week’s US Open at Oakmont but the reality is that I just cannot see beyond a battle between Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Ludvig Aberg.

McIlroy won The Masters in April, Scheffler secured the US PGA at Quail Hollow despite being nowhere near his best (and that is a worry for all his rivals), defending champion DeChambeau has turned himself into a major contender and Aberg is a racing certainty to win majors. It is hard to believe that it is just two years since the Swede made his professional debut.

There will be those who will make a case for Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa but I simply cannot see either man making a serious challenge. Schauffele won the US PGA and The Open in some style in 2024 but has battled with his game since returning from injury and Morikawa seems to be turning into a serial runner-up. He will point to Russell Henley’s outrageous good fortune in beating him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and to the scarcely credible play of Hideki Matsuyama at the Tournament of Champions but his recent form has been patchy.

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So let’s get back to the Fab Four.

It tells you everything you need to know about DeChambeau that he is ranked 10th in the world despite only being able to play in the majors on account of his affiliation with LIV Golf. Let’s start by dismissing the notion that the American is simply a bomber. Of course he propels the ball vast distances but you need rather more than that in your golf bag if you are to win the sport’s biggest tournaments - and he most certainly has. There was a time when he genuinely believed that he could use his power to bring all golf courses to their knees but this is a different animal these days.

It has to be said that all logic dictates that the US Open, with its penal rough, should be the major that ought to be most difficult for DeChambeau to win, but he has claimed the title twice - both times on notoriously difficult golf courses. That only tells a small part of the story - he finished tied fourth at the US PGA in 2020 ahead of his first US Open victory, and there was a tied eighth at the 2022 Open and a tied fourth at the 2023 US PGA. Those performances were all achieved when he was still trying to outmuscle courses.

He then decided that he required a more thoughtful approach, and the results speak for themselves. Last year he was tied sixth at The Masters, second to Schauffele in a thrilling US PGA and then he won the US Open for a second time. At this year’s Masters he was tied fifth after a poor final round and at the US PGA he was tied second behind Scheffler.

What is there left to be said about Scheffler? Well, let’s try. The man is in a class of his own right now. Following last year’s stellar season was always going to be difficult after his seven victories, Olympic golf medal and Hero World Challenge success but, after an uncertain start to 2025, hampered by injury, the big guy is doing this best. A slow start? Well, he finished tied ninth at Pebble Beach, tied third at the Genesis, tied 11th at the Arnold Palmer, tied second at Houston Open, fourth at The Masters and tied eighth at the RBC Heritage.

Then came the CJ Cup Byron Nelson where he destroyed the field with a 72-hole total of 31 under par followed by a crushing win at the US PGA for his third major title and a tied fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. And he tuned up for Oakmont by winning The Memorial.

He is still world number one and sits on top of the FedEx Cup standings. But here is the thing that should most concern his rivals - apart from his play at the CJ Cup he has been way short of his best. Last year he drove the ball superbly but he has missed a lot of fairways this time around. On the other hand, he has turned himself into one of the best putters on the PGA Tour - pretty impressive stuff when you consider that was the weakest part of his game. However, he will not need me or anybody else to tell him that if is to have any chance of winning at Oakmont this week, with its thick and punishing rough, then he is going to have to drive the ball better.

McIlroy made a dream start to the year, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Players Championship. Like Scheffler, he triumphed at TPC Sawgrass without having anything like his A-game with him. But he scrambled brilliantly and holed a lot of putts. Then came that mind-boggling Masters victory. Many of us wondered if he was ever going to win the Green Jacket and he certainly put us all through the emotional ringer during that rollercoaster final round when he appeared to throw it away, bounced back with a brilliant iron shot round the trees at the 15th and then contrived to miss the final green with a lofted club in his hands, and then missed a short putt and ended up in a playoff with England’s Justin Rose. It is safe to assume that most onlookers were convinced his race was run but he dug deep to produce another stunning approach in the playoff that gave him the birdie to secure his career grand slam. Finally!

As a serial winner at Quail Hollow, which hosted the US PGA Championship, he began the week as favourite but it just didn’t happen for him. His driver was discovered to be non-conforming and he had to change the head before the first round and could barely hit a fairway. As good as he is, he found the challenge too much and never looked like contending. 

He has finished second at the US Open in each of the past two years - in 2023 he lost out to Wyndham Clark by a shot and last year, in the most gut-wrenching of circumstances, he missed two short putts at the worst possible time to hand the tournament to DeChambeau. 

Leading up to last week’s Canadian Open, he had started just two individual events since The Masters, finishing tied seventh at The Truist and tied 47th at Quail Hollow, and he caused widespread surprise by deciding to give The Memorial a miss. Muirfield Village is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour and would surely have been a better test for McIlroy than the Canadian Open in Toronto, where he missed the cut by a country mile.

And then there is Aberg. What a talent! His first tournament as a professional was the Canadian Open in 2023, where he comfortably made the cut. The following month he shot a 63 on his way to a fourth-place finish at the John Deere Classic. He then headed across to Europe, where he was fourth at the Czech Masters before winning the European Masters the following week - enough to earn him a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup. The week after the Ryder Cup he lost in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship before winning the RSM Classic in November thanks to back-to-back rounds of 61.

His excellent form continued in 2024, with the highlight being a second place finish at The Masters - on his debut!

And in February this year he recorded the second win of his PGA Tour career at the Genesis Invitational. He birdied the last hole to shoot a final-round 66 and win by one stroke from Maverick McNealy. Just for good measure, during the third round, he made the first hole-in-one of his professional career. With the victory, he earned $4 million and moved atop the PGA Tour money list.

At The Masters he was briefly tied for the lead with two holes to go, but finished the 17th and 18th holes a total of four-over-par to tumble out of contention.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jordan Spieth, in 2016 by Dustin Johnson, in 2017 and 2018 by Brooks Koepka, in 2019 by Gary Woodland, in 2020 by Bryson DeChambeau, in 2021 by Jon Rahm, in 2022 by Matt Fitzpatrick, in 2023 by Wyndham Clark, and last year once again by DeChambeau.

The Course:

Oakmont is a par 70 that measures 7,431 yards. It was designed by Henry Fownes and opened in 1903. Unusually, there is almost no water in play and next to no trees. However, there are 175 bunkers, the fairways are narrow and the rough is thick. It is a shotmaker’s paradise.

Form Guide:

Can anybody beat Scottie Scheffler? The man is a machine. He has just won three of his past four starts, including the US PGA Championship, and is beginning to look unbeatable. You won't be shocked to discover that he is the 5/2 favourite on Betway.

Prize Money:

Total prize money is in excess of $21m, with around $4.25m going to the winner, along with 750 FedEx Cup points, 10,000 Race to Dubai points and 5,000 Ryder Cup points.

How to Watch:

Thursday, June 12, Friday, June 13, Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am; Saturday, June 14, Sunday, June 15, Sky Sports Golf, 3pm 

To Win:

Scottie Scheffler. Has every shot in the book (5/2)

Each Way:

Rory McIlroy. Looking to put things right (10/1)

Each Way:

Ludvig Aberg. Certain major winner (25/1)

Five to Follow:

Scottie Scheffler. Starting to look unbeatable (5/2)

Rory McIlroy. Must drive it well (10/1)

Ludvig Aberg. Fabulous temperament (25/1)

Bryson DeChambeau. Will light up Oakmont (7/1)

Robert MacIntyre. Could surprise a few people this week (80/1)

Five Outsiders to Watch:

Davis Riley. Impressive ball striker (250/1)

Jordan Smith. Has game to do well here (200/1)

Phil Mickelson. Could be his final US Open (200/1)

Laurie Canter. Enjoying a renaissance (300/1)

Thriston Lawrence. Rediscovered form and confidence (500/1)

What The Bookies Think (2025 US Open Winner)

1. Scottie Scheffler (5/1)

2. Bryson DeChambeau (7/1)

3. Rory McIlroy (10/1)

4. Jon Rahm (12/1)

5. Xander Schauffele (20/1)

6. Collin Morikawa (22/1)

7. Ludvig Aberg (25/1)

8. Joaquin Niemann (28/1)

9. Justin Thomas (33/1)

10. Patrick Cantlay (33/1)

11. Sepp Straka (33/1)

12. Shane Lowry (33/1)

13. Tommy Fleetwood (33/)

14. Viktor Hovland (40/1)

15. Ben Griffin (50/1)

This 2025 US Open preview article was written in collaboration with Betway.