Portugal Masters Preview, Picks & Analysis

THE European Tour moves on apace, with the Portugal Masters at Vilamoura, the second of three tournaments on the Iberian Swing - next comes the Open de Portugal.

Last year, this was the final tournament of the season, with players fighting to keep their cards - and that included the winner, Steven Brown. The Englishman, who needed a top three finish to retain his card, started the final round three shots adrift of Brandon Stone after a superb six-under-par 65 in the third round.

The 32-year-old closed the deal with a 66, which included an eagle on the 12th, to reach 17 under par and claim victory at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course.

"You just never know with this game," said Brown, who leapt from 150th to 69th in the Race to Dubai.

"It's crazy to think how well I've played the last month to how bad it was the first two thirds of the year. I never thought this was going to happen. I was just counting down the days until Tour School to get my game ready for that.”

South African duo Stone and Justin Walters finished one shot back to share second place in Vilamoura. Stone ended his season ranked 97th in the Race to Dubai after jumping up 51 places from 148th while Walters secured his card after moving up to 79th from 121st. There was also joy for Jeunghun Wang and Jack Singh Brar who moved into the top 115 to retain their playing privileges for 2020 after moving up to 109th and 101st respectively.

It is all very different this week. Once again, there will be no spectators. There are more tournaments to come. And, at the end of it all, nobody will be losing their rights this year. It was all very confusing last year. In theory, the top 110 in the rankings get to keep their cards but Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed played fewer than six events, while Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Aaron Wise and Min Woo Lee were affiliate members. When those players were removed from the top 110, the magic number became 116 but, with affiliate member Abraham Ancer sat at 114th, it increased to 117.

And nobody experienced more of an emotional rollercoaster than South Africa’s Walters. He arrived at this event in 2013 having lost his mother weeks earlier and with the pressure of knowing he needed an exceptional week to keep his card. He faced with a 60-foot putt on the final green for par and solo second and he made it, prompting an emotional celebration as his place on Tour was secured.

Last year he arrived in Portugal 121st in the Race to Dubai Rankings after another difficult season on and off the course.

He had struggled with injury and then lost his father in August and readily admitted that he struggled to cope.

"It’s about finding a bit of perspective after the loss of my dad," he said. "I just felt lost, I was trying to get too much out of the game and looking at that to solve my problems and issues."

An opening 63 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship showed that his game was still there, and a closing 65 at the Italian Open handed him a top ten in a Rolex Series event and gave him a fighting chance to keep his card.

He laid the foundations with an opening 65 and rarely looked like falling back as he followed it with rounds of 66 and 71. He was in a tie for the lead with three to play and while he could not claim a first European Tour victory, a closing 66 meant he was second again and up to 79th in the standings, his playing rights secured once again.

"It’s very satisfying just after what we’ve been through," he said.  "Aside from a few putting problems, I did all right. I kept telling myself to keep doing the same stuff. I putted really well. I left it all out there.”

In many ways, history has repeated itself for Walters this year. He was struggling once more when he teed it up at the UK Championship at The Belfry before losing in a playoff to Rasmus Hojgaard. Walters, it seems, reserves his best play for this time of year. But at least he will arrive in Portugal with no pressure on his shoulders.

It is difficult to think about possible winners without mentioning Sweden’s Sebastian Soderberg, who enjoyed two top-10 finishes at Celtic Manor during the UK Swing. About to celebrate his 30th birthday, Soderberg won the European Masters last year and relishes “proper” golf courses - and they don’t come much better than Vilamoura.

Keep an eye on Thorbjorn Olesen, too. The Dane may not have exactly set the world alight since returning from exile but there have been plenty of encouraging signs recently. He is clearly enjoying competing again and is not far from his best. If ever there was a golfer who needs a big week, it is Olesen.

It was won in 2015 by Andy Sullivan, in 2016 by Padraig Harrington, in 2017 by Lucas Bjerregaard, in 2018 by Tom Lewis and in 2019 by Steven Brown.

For our weekly betting odds in partnership with Betway visit here. You can also discover the latest Betway Golf tips and odds. All odds correct at the time of posting. Bet the responsible way.

To Win:

Sebastian Soderberg. Ready to win again

Each Way: 

Thorbjorn Olesen. Has a point to prove

Each Way: 

Haotong Li. Hugely underrated

Fantasy Picks:

Sebastian Soderberg. Few weaknesses

Thorbjorn Olesen. Confidence returning

Haotong Li. Massively impressive Chinese golfer

Jorge Campillo. Already a winner this season

Brandon Stone. Stunning golf swing, fabulous temperament

Joost Luiten. Due a good finish

Pablo Larrazabal. Loves this part of the world

Alvaro Quiros. Showing some encouraging flashes

Kalle Samooja. Hits the ball a mile

Justin Walters. Good memories - and under no pressure