Italian Open Preview, Picks & Analysis

IT HAS BEEN ten years since Francesco Molinari won the Italian Open and, after spending most of the year playing on the PGA Tour, he returns to his homeland and bids to land his national title once again.

Molinari is a fabulous ball striker who should have won many, many tournaments but his putting consistently lets him down. There are few better iron players on the planet and he will be hoping that a combination of the Golf Club Milano and enthusiastic home crowds will inspire him.

The defending champion is Rikard Karlberg, in 2014 it was won by Hennie Otto, by Frenchman Julien Quesne in 2013,  Gonzalo Fernandez-Castana in 2012, Robert Rock in 2011 and Fredrik Andersson-Hed in 2010 - so you get the message that this is a difficult tournament to call.

With the Ryder Cup fast appearing on the horizon, it comes as no surprise to see that seven members of Darren Clarke's team have entered this tournament. Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Danny Willett,  Chris Wood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Andy Sullivan will all be looking for a good week. Westwood and Kaymer both received captain's picks and neither man has managed to win a tournament this season, although Westwood has come close on a couple of occasions. He finished the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre in sensational fashion, closing with a round of 63 to justify the faith Clarke has shown in him as the Englishman prepares for an unbelievable 10th Ryder Cup.

Fitzpatrick played three wonderful rounds at Crans-sur-Sierre and is once again playing with a freedom that will surely make him a vital member of the team at Hazeltine.

The man most likely to succeed here is somebody who narrowly missed out on the Ryder Cup. Alex Noren has had a fantastic summer, winning the Aberdeen Asset Scottish Open and the European Masters and reaching the final of the Paul Lawrie Matchplay. The Swede is a superb golfer with few weaknesses. He has won six times on the European Tour and his confidence is sky-high, so don't be at all surprised if he adds another title.

Nicolas Colsaerts has spent the past couple of years in the shadow of his young countryman, Thomas Pieters. Colsaerts tried his hand on the PGA Tour, had a dreadful time and his confidence was shattered. It has taken him a long time to recover, but the big-hitting Belgian has been playing some excellent golf in 2016 and is surely due a return to the winners' enclosure. His driving is his strength, and always has been, but he has worked hard on his short game and is now holing more than his fair share of putts. He has also been motivated by the performances of Pieters.

Tyrrell Hatton has also enjoyed a good year and at one point looked as if he might sneak into Clarke's team. All that he needed was a victory to secure his place, but he has thus far been unable to find it. The young Englishman has everything it takes to reach the top, especially now that he has learnt not to be quite as hard on himself.

My dark horse is Nacho Elvira, the Portuguese golfer who won three times on the Challenge Tour last year and was already his country's top-ranked player before he even reached the European Tour. We have a lot of bright young prospects in Europe right now, and Elvira is one of the best. Many respected pundits believe that when he makes his breakthrough on tour it could open the floodgates, and the course in Milan should suit him down to the ground.

Italian Open Tips and Betting Picks

To Win: 

Alex Noren. Not afraid to win again

Each Way:

Nicolas Colsaerts. Ready for another victory

Francesco Molinari. Desperate to succeed

Italian Open Fantasy Picks

Alex Noren. Terrific, consistent Swede

Nicolas Colsaerts. Looking more like his old self again

Francesco Molinari. Will be a national hero if he wins

Nacho Elvira. Brilliant young golfer

Lee Westwood. Would feel much better with a win under his belt

Danny Willett. Played well in Switzerland - and about time too

Matt Fitzpatrick. Bursting with confidence

Tyrrell Hatton. Will surely win soon

Martin Kaymer. Could do with a good week

Rafa Cabrera-Bello. Great form continues