BMW Championship 2025 Preview, Picks & Analysis

It is not all about the money - but it certainly helps. There is, once again, much gold on offer for the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings as they gather for the BMW Championship, the penultimate event of the regular PGA Tour season. And those in positions 31-50 still have much to play for as they aim to make it into the elite field of 30 for next week’s Tour Championship, where the winner will require a security van to take home the massive cheque he will receive.

Rory McIlroy chose to sit out the FedEx St Jude Championship, but he did so safe in the knowledge that his position in second place in the FedEx Cup standings was secure. He now needs two massive weeks to cap a regular season in which he finally won The Masters and secured the career grand slam while also choosing to snub most of the sport’s media, telling them he had earned the right to speak to whoever he wanted when he chose to do so. It did him few favours among fans.

The Northern Irishman admitted that he struggled for motivation after collecting the Green Jacket in April. It was quite clear that his mind was not on the job at either the US PGA or the US Open. But the spring was back in his step during The Open at Royal Portrush as a hugely passionate home gallery cheered him every inch of the way. He never looked like winning the Claret Jug but he did play some thrilling golf and admitted that he’d got his appetite back.

And what better way to prove the point than by winning the BMW and the Tour Championship and then inspiring Europe to victory at the Ryder Cup? It may seem fanciful, but this is Rory McIlroy we are talking about - and anything is possible.

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

Of course we all expect a Scottie Scheffler procession towards the FedEx Cup but I hope - and believe - that we will witness some big European performances this week.

Justin Rose has been a revelation in 2025. Any thoughts of him making Europe’s 2025 Ryder Cup team and being in with a chance of making the field for the Tour Championship seemed pretty fanciful at the start of the year. But nobody told him.

He finished tied third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and tied eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, both played on " proper" golf courses, and then gave Rory McIlroy the fright of his life at Augusta before eventually losing in another playoff at The Masters in April. If anybody doubted whether he still had an appetite for the game, they had their answer.

He missed the cut at the US PGA, Canadian Open and US Open but of course he bounced back, finishing sixth at the Scottish Open and tied 16th at The Open. And then there was another stunning week at the FedEx St Jude. It is now utterly unthinkable that he will not be making a seventh Ryder Cup appearance. 

He has already secured his place in the field for the Tour Championship.

He will be joined by fellow Europeans McIlroy, Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry and Robert MacIntyre for sure.

They have had mixed fortunes this season, none more so than Fleetwood, who suffered an agonising defeat to Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship. If that wasn’t painful enough, he has also had to endure another agonising near-miss at the FedEx St Jude.

With Cameron Young having now claimed the Wyndham Championship to end his own victory drought, the Englishman surely lays claim to the title of the best player yet to have won on the PGA Tour. I remain utterly convinced that this most resilient and gutsy of players will set the record straight. It is a measure of his remarkable consistency that he is yet again heading to East Lake despite not winning.

He was tied fifth at the Genesis, tied 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seventh at the RBC Heritage, tied fourth at the Truist, tied fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge, tied second a the Travelers and tied 16th at The Open.

If you are looking for a winner this week beyond Scheffler and McIlroy, it might be worth having a flutter on Russell Henley, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season.

Ahead of the FedEx St Jude, he had made 305 starts on the PGA Tour, winning five times, with five seconds, four thirds and 29 top fives. And he is currently enjoying the best year of his career. Apart from the victory at Bay Hill, he shared second place with Fleetwood at the Travelers, tied fifth at both the AT&T Pebble Beach and The Memorial, tied sixth at the Cognizant, and tied 10th at The Open. He has had nine top 10s, earned more than $9.6m in prize money, climbed to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings and fifth in the world rankings. He is a golfer who is often underrated and goes about his business quietly, preferring to let his clubs do the talking for him.

Last year’s BMW was won by Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley. He claimed a one-shot victory over Australia's Adam Scott, who drew level after the opening hole. But a run of three straight bogeys by Scott, from the 10th hole onwards, gave Bradley a lead he would not relinquish. 

Bradley, who also won the BMW Championship in a playoff with Rose in 2018, bogeyed the last to finish with a level-par 72, on 12 under for the week.

He won by one stroke from Scott, compatriot Sam Burns and Sweden's Ludvig Aberg to claim his seventh PGA Tour title.

It meant that Bradley entered the Tour Championship - which features just the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings - in fourth place. "Oh, man, it just shows why you've got to grind it out every week because you never know how fast it can switch," Bradley said. "Now I go to Atlanta with a chance to win the FedEx Cup. I can't believe it. I'm so excited.”

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jason Day, in 2016 by Dustin Johnson, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 and 2024 by Keegan Bradley, in 2019 by Justin Thomas, in 2020 by Jon Rahm, in 2021 and 2022 by Patrick Cantlay and in 2023 by Viktor Hovland.

The Course:

Caves Valley Golf Club is located in Maryland and was established in 1991. Designed by Tom Fazio, it carves its way through tree-lined fairways, with lots of rough and well-bunkered greens. Water also comes into play, notably at the 224-yard fourth and 215-yard eighth. It is a par 70 that measures 7,631 yards.

Form Guide:

Rory McIlroy looked like his old self at The Open, has had a brief break and will be fresh and determined to spoil Scottie Scheffler’s party.

Prize Money:

There is a total prize fund of $20m, with the winner collecting $3.6m.

How to Watch:

Thursday, August 14, Sky Sports Golf, 5pm; Friday, August 15, Sky Sports Golf, 5pm; Saturday, August 16, Sky Sports Golf, 6pm; Sunday, August 17, Sky Sports Golf, 4pm.

To Win:

Rory McIlroy. Has a spring in his step again

Each Way:

Scottie Scheffler. Can anybody stop him?

Each Way:

Russell Henley. The quiet man

Five to Follow:

Rory McIlroy. Out to be a party-pooper

Scottie Scheffler. Relentless

Russell Henley. Hugely underrated

Keegan Bradley. Feisty Ryder Cup captain

Shane Lowry. Enjoying a consistent season