The Players Championship Preview, Picks & Analysis

JUSTIN THOMAS put a troubled start to the year behind him as he won The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass 12 months ago.

It started in Hawaii when he was caught on camera uttering a homophobic slur, which ended up costing him one of his leading sponsors. And it got worse when his beloved grandfather passed away.

After Thomas had won at Sawgrass his father, Mike, was asked what Paul Thomas - Mike’s late father, Justin’s grandfather - would have said about the performance. “He would have just said, ‘Good round, bub,’” Mike said with a laugh after Justin had signed for a 4-under 68 to beat Lee Westwood (72) by one. “He always said ‘bub’ to everything.”

Paul Thomas, who paved the way for the golfing Thomas men, died at 89 in February 2021. He played in the 1960 and 1961 PGA Championships, and the 1962 U.S. Open, and spent his life teaching the game in Zanesville, Ohio. 

While others melted down, Thomas went five under on holes 9-12, including an eagle at the par-five 11th hole, to seize control. He went even par the rest of the way for his 14th PGA Tour victory.

Brian Harman (69) and Bryson DeChambeau (71) tied for third, two back.

It had only been five weeks since Mike broke the news to his son the night before the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Justin, mourning the loss of his grandfather, played the next day with a heavy heart, carding a 72 for a T13 finish. He said he knew he had to play, and that his grandfather would have wanted him to play. But he couldn’t focus. He felt shattered. It was, he said, the hardest round of golf he’s ever played.

“Heaven got a good one,” he later wrote on Instagram, but he had barely begun to process his grandfather’s passing when the next piece of awful news rolled in. Barely two weeks later, after Thomas missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational, Tiger Woods, a close friend and his Presidents Cup partner, was seriously injured in a single-car accident in Los Angeles. 

Already downbeat after a tough couple of weeks, Thomas took it hard. “I kept telling everyone on my team or my family I'm ready for something good to happen this year,” he said.

Added Mike Thomas, “We’ve been through a lot, the last couple months. I think it affected Justin quite a bit. He just kind of has not been himself the last month or so.”

But he was back to his best at Swagrass for this long-awaited Players - the first in two years because of the virus. 

On an extraordinary final day, DeChambeau topped his drive 143 yards into the lake at the par-four fourth hole. Westwood sliced his tee shot way right, his ball splashing down in the same pond as he finished second for the second week running. Westwood made bogey, DeChambeau double-bogey. 

Suddenly the chasers now had a new lease of life. Corey Conners (66, T7) was six-under through 14 and two back. So were Sergio Garcia (72, T9), the 2008 champion, and Thomas, despite being stuck on the par train through his first six holes. Even Paul Casey (70, T5) was threatening.

It was anybody’s tournament, but that’s when Thomas kick-started his run with a towering 5-iron second shot to the par-5 ninth hole. It left him an easy two-putt birdie. 

“The most impressive shot? There were a lot of them,” said his caddie, Jimmy Johnson. “The five iron on the ninth. He hadn’t missed a fairway or a green through that part, so I knew he had it today.”

Thomas mostly looked down or straight ahead on the long walks from greens to tees. He birdied 10, and eagled 11, his four-iron second shot stopping some 19 feet behind the flag. He went over the green at the drivable par-four 12th hole and nearly chipped it in.  

He missed a tiny par putt on the 14th, which Westwood later birdied, but got his nose ahead again with another two-putt birdie at the par-five 16th hole. Westwood failed to match, and Thomas sealed it with pars on the 17th and 18th. His tee shot barely avoided trickling into the giant water hazard left of the fairway at the last.

Thomas had done it, coming all the way back from what he called a "crappy" couple of months.

“I thought about him this morning,” he said of his grandfather. “I think about him every day but thought about him this morning and then when I saw my dad walking up 18. That was the first time during or since I teed off on one when I really thought about him.”

This Year's Players Championship

Laser-like long irons, a steady nerve, an inward 32 - Thomas played beautifully. And he will be hoping for a repeat performance when he returns to defend his title at the tournament that is branded as golf’s fifth major. It is no such thing, of course, but it will boast a star-studded field.

And Rory McIlroy will feel that he has a point to prove, especially after shooting a pair of 76s at Bay Hill. The Northern Irishman has made a decent start to the season and there is every indication that his very best form is not far away. He told us in Dubai that he was going to leave the driver in the bag more often this year and opt for the three wood to keep the ball in play. When you can hit a fairway wood 300 yards why would you want to hit driver anyway? But too often he has found the mutation to reach for the big dog too much. And he continues to miss fairways. On the plus side, his iron play has definitely improved, as has his putting.

Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa continue their battle at the top of the world rankings, with Viktor Hovland also knocking at the door, all of whom are highly fancied in the Betway market.

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

There is no more consistent player on the planet right now than the Norwegian. He seems to contend every time he plays and recorded yet another runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. You may recall that as recently as last year the pundits widely expressed the view that Hovlasnd’s short game needed work. He didn’t need anybody to tell him that it was an area of the game the had to improve and he now has no weaknesses. No golfer in the top 10 in the world rankings has a better temperament and here’s the thing - unlike so many of his rivals, Hovland actually looks like he enjoys playing golf. He takes the rough with the smooth, shrugging off rare bad shots as being part and parcel of the game.

Thomas has not had a great time since winning here 12 months ago and would dearly love to make a successful defence of his title, but he is going to have his work out out for him - especially when you learn that nobody has ever made a successful defence. 

There is a plethora of outstanding young talent on the PGA Tour - Sam Burns, Joaquin Niemann, Tom Hoge, Talor Gooch. And that’s before we consider the credentials of the likes of Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Matthew Wolff, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau.

And it seems that every other week we see a new first-time winner. Ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we had already seen six first-time winners this season. 

Gooch is one of those players and may well be the best player that most people have never heard of. He won the RSM Classic in November after top-five finishes at both the Fortinet and CJ Cup. There have been a couple of recent missed cuts but TPC Sawgrass ought to suit his game.

Hideki Matsuyama has a decent record here. With two wins already this season, the Masters champion has become one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour.

Picking a winner at any tournament is like looking for a needle in a haystack but the chances are that this week’s champion will be an established star. Sawgrass is, of course, a stadium course, purpose-built to provide plenty of drama. 

Of one thing you can be sure - there will not be a dull moment, especially as the event will be played in front of a full house. It also boasts a record-breaking $20m prize fund, with the winner picking up a quite staggering $4.7m.

Tournament Winners

The tournament was won in 2015 by Rickie Fowler, in 2016 by Jason Day, in 2017 by Si Woo Kim, in 2018 by Webb Simpson, in 2019 by Rory McIlroy and last year by Justin Thomas. It was abandoned after one round in 2020 because of the global pandemic.

The Course

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye. It is a par 72 and measures 7,245 yards. The iconic 17th, a par three measuring 137 yards, is one of the most iconic holes in golf. Completely surrounded by water, it claims an estimated 100,000 golf balls every year. The 16th is a par five with water running down the right - it is a hole where eagles can be scored, but a wayward approach could just as easily result in a double-bogey, or worse. And the 18th is a fearsome par four with water on the left.

Form Guide

How do you follow a season like the one Patrick Cantlay had last year? He is without a win and he hasn’t played a great deal this year but his form is as impressive as ever. After returning at the Tournament of Champions he reeled off four successive top-10 finishes. His first victory of 2022 cannot be far away. Viktor Hovland won at Mayakoba and also claimed the Hero World Challenge before heading to the Middle East, where he was fourth at the Abu Dhabi Championship before winning the Dubai Desert Classic. And he is fresh off a runner-up finish at Bay Hill.

To Win:

Patrick Cantlay. FedEx Cup champion ready to win again (20/1)

Each Way:

Collin Morikawa. Beautiful iron player (12/1)

Each Way:

Viktor Hovland. So good and so consistent (16/1)

Five to Follow:

Patrick Cantlay. So close to his very best (20/1)

Collin Morikawa. Course should be made for him (12/1)

Viktor Hovland. Has no weaknesses (16/1)

Rory McIlroy. Past champion (16/1)

Sam Burns, A big-time player (40/1)

Five Outsiders to Watch:

Alex Noren. Trending in the right direction (100/1)

Cameron Tringale. Reeling off top-15 finishes for fun (125/1)

Maverick McNealy. Has only missed one cut all season (125/1)

Erik van Rooyen. Best moustache in world golf (150/1)

Chris Kirk. Getting back to his best (66/1)

This tour preview article was written in collaboration with Betway.