Honda Classic Preview, Picks & Analysis

WHEN Matt Jones won his first PGA Tour title in 2014 he needed to hole a 45-foot birdie putt to get into a playoff and then a 40-yard chip-in to take the victory. His triumph at last year’s Honda Classic was rather less dramatic.

Jones won by five shots, a final round of two-under 68 good enough to finish the week at 12-under 268 at PGA National. The margin matched the largest in tournament history, tying the mark set by Jack Nicklaus in 1977 and matched by Camilo Villegas in 2010.

"It's been seven years. It's been a tough seven years," Jones said. "I've had ups and I've had downs, as all golfers have, but it gets me into a lot of big tournaments now."

The win moved him to 11th in the FedExCup and got him into The Masters, The Players Championship and Sentry Tournament of Champions.

The 40-year-old Australian earned $1.26 million. His win at the Houston Open in 2014 - and his Masters invite - came just one day before he had to go to Augusta, so it was a mad scramble to get family and friends together to share in the experience.

"It's going to be nice," Jones said. "I can go prep for The Masters this time. Last time it was an absolute blur. I can't remember a thing about it, so I'm going to do some prep this time before."

Jones started the week with a course-record-tying round of 9-under 61. He was three shots behind Aaron Wise after 36 holes after a second-round 70, and his third round of 69 was good enough to put him up by three entering Sunday.

Brandon Hagy (66) finished 7 under and alone in second on his 30th birthday, his chance at winning doomed by a third-round 76. Chase Seiffert (64), Brendan Steele (65), C.T. Pan (70), Denny McCarthy (67) and Russell Henley (68) tied for third at 6 under.

"There's a lot of tough holes out there and there's big stakes for sure, but I've been working on some good stuff and it's nice to see some of that pan out," Hagy said.

The only stretch where Jones' grip on the lead seemed in peril was midway through the round; Wise, who once led by six shots during the third round, had four birdies in a six-hole stretch on the front and got within one of the lead.

Wise's chances ended at the par-4 10th. He hit his second into a bunker, then four-putted from 25 feet for triple-bogey. Jones' lead went to four, and he avoided trouble the rest of the way, while Wise finished with a 73 and tied for 13th at 4 under.

J.B. Holmes was in the final group with Jones, three shots back to start the day, and his chance disappeared pretty quickly. Holmes knocked his shot from a greenside bunker off the green and made bogey on the opening hole, then sent his tee shot way right on the par-four second and needed about 10 minutes to find the ball. He went on to make double bogey there, and when Jones birdied the par-5 third Holmes' deficit had gone from three to eight shots in about 45 minutes.

At that point, only a few had a realistic chance at catching Jones. Before long, the outcome was obvious.

"You can't get a tougher golf course to win on than this one, in these conditions," Jones said. "To be able to do that on this golf course is amazing and something I can build on for the future, hopefully.”

A fit-again Brooks Koepka has been a regular starter at The Honda Classic and will be back again this year.  Koepka, a former No. 1 in the world, has been dogged by injury but says he is healthy once again. He will be joined by Rickie Fowler, Louis Oosthuizen and Gary Woodland.

Oosthuizen had an outstanding year in 2021, finishing no worse than third in three of the majors. Fowler remains a fan favourite despite struggling with his game and will play in the Honda for the 13th consecutive year. Woodland, the 2019 U.S. Open champion, missed the event last year after testing positive for COVID.

The tournament returns to its late February date this season and once again kicks off the Florida Swing. Last year, it was moved to the third weekend of March and many of the the world's top players skipped the event because it fell between two World Golf Championship tournaments and one week after The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

Koepka, 31, has played every year when healthy since making his debut in 2014. In 2020, he was forced to withdraw one week before the tournament because of a right knee injury. Koepka said he is healthy once again and is looking forward to a solid season.

"I think everything's getting right where it should be,” he said, referring to his game and his new equipment deal with Srixon. “My game feels good. I feel good. I should be playing good.”

The equipment deal was announced in November. Since then, he finished tied for ninth at the Hero World Challenge in December and 28th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua.

Koepka believes that if he can remain healthy he can emulate the form that saw him win two U.S. Open championships and two PGA titles in a two-year stretch in 2017-19. In 2019, he finished in the top four of all four majors.

"That wasn't my peak," Koepka said. "That wasn't peak. Just wait.”

Fowler has five PGA Tour victories, including the 2017 Honda Classic, and is desperate to end a three-year slump in form. His most recent victory was the 2019 Phoenix Open. He has dropped out of the top 100 after being in the top 10 as recently as 2019.

"It has been (about) going out and not worrying so much about the swing and hitting shots," Fowler said. "It's been fun to be back in a position where I can just go play golf. It's been a long time coming, but it is nice to finally start to see some results.”

Fowler tied for third at the CJ Cup in Las Vegas in October. 

Others who have committed include BMW PGA champion Billy Horschel, Matthew Wolff, Lee Westwood, Tommy Fleetwood, Stewart Cink, Zach Johnson, and former Honda Classic champions Keith Mitchell, Padraig Harrington, Michael Thompson, Rory Sabbatini and Luke Donald.

Tournament Winners

It was won in 2015 by Padraig Harrington, in 2016 by Adam Scott, in 2017 by Rickie Fowler, in 2018 by Justin Thomas, in 2019 by Keith Mitchell, in 2020 by Sungjae Im and last year by Matt Jones.

The Course

PGA National, which opened in 1972, has hosted the tournament since 2007. The course is a par 70 and measures 7,140 yards. There is plenty of water, most notably on each of the three closing holes - a dramatic par four, a par three and a closing par five.

Form Guide

Tommy Fleetwood will be the first to admit that he has under-achieved over the past couple of years, and he had a disappointing 2021. But he showed some highly encouraging form at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he finished in a tie for 12th despite a poor final round of 75. He has developed a habit of throwing in one bad round but he will work things out. He should have won this tournament in 2020 but hit his approach into the lake at the final hole. Brooks Koepka is fit and back to his best. He played well at the Phoenix Open after missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. Matthew Wolff already has four top-20 finishes to his credit this season, including a second place at the Shriners. He had some problems with his mental health during the lockdown but says he now feels fine.

To Win:

Brooks Koepka. Class act

Each Way:

Matthew Wolff. Emerging from a tough time

Each Way:

Tommy Fleetwood. Showed some decent form in the Middle East

Five to Follow:

Brooks Koepka. Beautiful ball striker

Matthew Wolff. Coming back to form

Tommy Fleetwood. Loves this course 

Chris Kirk. One of the feel-good stories on the PGA Tour

Gary Woodland. Has a point to prove

Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography