The Open 2026 preview, picks & analysis

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The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale this week for the first time since Jordan Spieth’s heroics in 2017. 

At the time, it seemed like the American could do no wrong and he appeared to be destined to dominate the game for years to come. He seemed to hole every putt he looked at.

Much has happened to him in the interim but one thing is certain - the massive galleries will be hoping for something similar this time.

And the man who could deliver it is another American, 26-year-old Chris Gotterup. Barely 12 months ago hardly anybody had heard of him - in the months since, nobody in the men’s game has more victories to his name.

He produced a stellar performance to win the 2025 Scottish Open, followed it up by finishing third behind Scottie Scheffler at The Open, won the Sony Open in January, the Phoenix Open three weeks later and earlier this month added the John Deere Classic. Heading into the defence of his Scottish Open title he was sixth in the FedEx Cup standings and seventh in the world rankings. It is quite a rise. He also made the cut in all three majors, with a best of tied 10th at the US PGA Championship.

There is a constant debate about the best players not to have won a major - Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood are obvious contenders but Gotterup has now surely entered that conversation.

It goes without saying that local boy Fleetwood will have a massive amount of support and it is equally true to say that there would be no more popular winner. 

Nobody in the field knows Birkdale better than Fleetwood. As a youngster he used to sneak on to the course.

He is enjoying another remarkably consistent season on the PGA Tour but has rarely looked like adding to his solitary victory at the Tour Championship. However, it is impossible to ignore the claims of a man who seems to get himself into contention every time he tees it up. He is also a rare animal in the modern game, a true shotmaker who will relish the challenge if it is windy.

Young is a phenomenal athlete. It took him a long time to finally get over the winning line but he has now acquired a taste for it. He hasn’t missed a cut all year, winning the Players Championship and the Cadillac, finishing tied third at The Masters. His recent form has been a trifle patchy but I expect him to be ready.

I have also enjoyed the renaissance of Wyndham Clark. The way he dealt with the hostile crowds in winning his second US Open last month was a credit to a man who would be the first to admit that he sometimes has problems controlling his emotions. He lost his game for a while but worked tirelessly and is now back to his absolute best. It would not surprise me to see him contend.

There will be many who will fancy Scheffler to make a successful defence of his title. I am not convinced. 

He has "only" picked up one victory on the PGA Tour in 2026. His statistics are mind-blowing. He finished second at The Masters, the RBC Heritage, the Cadillac Championship and the Travelers. There have also been a couple of third places and a fourth at the US Open. 

But he has developed an unfortunate habit of producing the odd iffy round - including a rare missed cut at the Scottish Open, his first in four years. The inability to finish the job off will be in his head and at a course such as Birkdale, with all its quirky bounces, this may not be place where he is going to get things back on track.

Scottie Scheffler

(Image Credit: Rolex/J.D. Cuban)

Then there is Rory McIlroy. If you take away his incredible title defence at The Masters, the Northern Irishman has a) barely played any golf, and b) has performed way below his best, although there were some encouraging signs at the Scottish Open. He has gone close in The Open several times in the past and has one Claret Jug to his credit but he looks horribly underprepared to me. Of one thing you can be certain - if the wind blows he has no chance.

Goodness alone knows what has happened to Bryson DeChambeau in 2026. I believe that he gets in his own way and often overthinks things. 

The harsh reality is that while he continues to enjoy considerable success with LIV, he has missed the cut at The Masters, US PGA and US Open this year, all without really looking like he would make the weekend. 

He will surely know that Birkdale is going to require some finesse if he is to avoid the penal rough and punishing bunkers. Sadly, I think he is destined for another weekend where he will be taking an early flight home.

I do not expect that to be the case for Matthew Fitzpatrick, who is enjoying another wonderful season. The Englishman has always looked to me like a man who is made for links golf and with his confidence sky-high after wins at the Valspar, Zurich Classic (with brother Alex) and RBC Heritage he will be looking to claim his second major title. 

Don’t forget that he also finished second at the Canadian Open, fourth at the Travelers, and third at the Scottish Open.

Viktor Hovland is one of the most frustrating players I have ever watched. For the life of me, I will never understand why he feels the need to constantly tinker with his swing. It means that you never quite know what you are going to get with the Norwegian but he played brilliantly in winning the recent Travelers Championship and is another whose game is made for links golf.

This is where it all began for Justin Rose when, as a 17-year-old amateur, he holed his approach from the rough at the final hole to finish in a share for fourth place. He then turned professional and missed his first 21 cuts. But, 28 years later, Rose remains one of the best players in the world and, at the age of 45, it should surprise nobody if he were to win his second major at a venue that means so much to him.

If you are looking for an outsider who could surprise a few people then look no further than the brilliant Spaniard Eugenio Chacarra. After a dalliance with LIV that did his career no good whatsoever, he has won three times on the DP World Tour, with two of those successes coming this year. Like most Spaniards, he possesses magical hands and a glorious touch around the greens. He is also a big hitter and if he can keep the ball on the fairway he could go close to causing a huge shock on what is his Open debut. I will be having an each-way flutter on him.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Zach Johnson, in 2016 by Henrik Stenson, in 2017 by Jordan Spieth, in 2018 by Francesco Molinari, in 2019 by Shane Lowry, in 2021 by Collin Morikawa, in 2022 by Cameron Smith, in 2023 by Brian Harman, in 2024 by Xander Schauffele and last year by Scottie Scheffler. There was no tournament in 2020 because of the pandemic.

The Course:

Royal Birkdale is a classic links course. It was established in 1889 but redesigned in 1922 to create the course we know today, with fairways that wind their way through towering sand dunes. It is a par 70 measuring 7,170 yards, with penal rough and punishing fairway bunkers.

Form Guide:

Chris Gotterup (25/1 on Betfred) is the form player and has already proved that he can handle links courses, but Scottie Scheffler is certain to be there or thereabouts once again.

Prize Money:

The total prize fund is expected to be in th region of $17m with the winner collecting $3.1m, 10,000 Race to Dubai points and 750 FedEx Cup points.

How to Watch:

Monday, July 13, Tuesday, July 14, Wednesday, July 15, Live at the Range, Sky Sports Golf, 9am, 2pm, 7pm.

First round, Thursday, July 16, Sky Sports Golf, 6.30am; Second round, Friday, July 17, Sky Sports Golf, 6.30am; Third round, Saturday, July 18, Sky Sports Golf, 9am; Final round, Sunday, July 19, Sky Sports Golf, 8am.

TalkSport and Radio 5 Live will be broadcasting live from Birkdale with regular updates throughout the tournament.

To Win:

Chris Gotterup. It should surprise nobody if he wins his first major

Each Way:

Robert MacIntyre. His game is made for links golf and he will hope the wind blows

Each Way:

Scottie Scheffler. If he can eliminate that one dodgy round he will win

Five to Follow:

Chris Gotterup. A truly world-class performer

Robert MacIntyre. Determined to put on a show

Scottie Scheffler. Enjoying  another stellar season but has forgotten how to win

Tommy Fleetwood. Crowd favourite

Rory McIlroy. Needs his drive to behave

Five Outsiders to Watch:

David Puig. Gifted Spaniard

Padraig Harrington. Still a brilliant ball striker

Eugenio Chacarra. A proper dark horse

Casey Jarvis. Terrific young South African

Marco Penge. Good to see him back


Odds supplied by Betfred.

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