How likely is Haotong Li to win a major championship?

When you think about it, 2017 was a pretty iconic year for golf, we saw Sergio Garcia win the Masters after what felt like an eternal wait, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas secured their first majors and Jordan Spieth lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale. Xander Schauffele was even awarded rookie of the year on the PGA Tour. I’m sure there is much more that could be mentioned, but that is a completely different conversation.  

The 2017 Open Championship is widely remembered by its winner, Spieth, who was making great waves on the PGA Tour at the time. But if you looked at the leaderboard just a few names down, you’d find a player who you most likely hadn’t heard of at all at the time.  

Haotong Li had arrived at Royal Birkdale for the Open as a massive underdog, playing on the European Tour and only having featured in one previous major. By the end of the final round on Sunday, however, he had shot an astounding 63 and claimed a solo third place finish.  

This summer, the Open Championship will be returning to Royal Birkdale, and it begs the question, could Haotong Li become the next first-time major winner? 

Who Could Be Golf's Next First Time Major Winner?

Last August, I posted an article (and a TikTok for any devout followers of mine) about who could be golf’s next first-time major winner. The answer to that question at the time didn’t even make my list, as Aaron Rai hoisted up his debut major trophy at this year's PGA Championship.  

At the time, I was all in on Ludvig Aberg. Unbelievable talent and he has showcased it a bunch over the past few years, but he just hasn’t quite had the finishing touch to claim a major trophy just yet. Tommy Fleetwood was another one on my radar. All the ability, but it has just not quite happened for him yet. 

If I was to publish that article again tomorrow, I don't think the list would change a whole lot, but there would certainly be a new name added after this year's Masters! 

Haotong Li's Debut on The PGA Tour 

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

After an incredible 2025 season on the DP World Tour, Haotong earned his PGA Tour card for 2026, making this his debut season on the PGA Tour.  

So far, it's been a fairly quiet rookie year for Li, having made one top ten finish and two top 25 finishes. However, there is one performance that stands much clearer than the rest.  

Now you can look at Li’s Masters finish, T38, and assume nothing of it, but if you don’t remember, he was very much up there for three quarters of the weekend. He was sat at T7 at the end of round three, just four strokes behind the leaders.  

It was very unfortunate how his final round turned out, shooting eight over and dropping down the leaderboard significantly. But this isn't the first time we’ve seen something like this in golf, and it most certainly won’t be the last either. 

Could He Win The Open at Royal Birkdale?

To play golf that contends with the leaders at Augusta is something that cannot be overlooked at all. It shows that Haotong has more than enough ability to compete on the very biggest stages in the game. But there is so much pressure on that final round.  

Returning to Royal Birkdale this summer, on the back of a fourth place finish in last year's championship at Royal Portrush, Haotong will have great memories of his last visit to this famous links, after all, the last round he scored there was a 63. It takes a lot to just turn up to the Open Championship and win the whole thing, but I certainly think that Haotong Li will be a player to keep your eyes on across the weekend, as well as during the build-up. 

If you follow Haotong at all on social media, you will know exactly what kind of player and person he is. After a disappointing finish at the Masters, you would assume he would have been gutted, in despair, straight back into work to fix what went wrong. Maybe half of that is correct, but he was straight on social media re-posting memes about his final round performance. He is an incredibly laid back, respectful and funny person, and this translates into his golf game. For the first three rounds at Augusta, he played with supreme confidence.

After my failure to even mention Aaron Rai as a potential first-time major winner just under a year ago, I don't think I can qualify myself to start dishing out predictions from my crystal ball again. But I can certainly say that there is a serious player in Haotong Li, and I think his long-awaited return to Royal Birkdale could be quite an exciting watch.