What can we realistically expect from Brooks Koepka on PGA Tour return?

The 2026 season is underway, and it has been lightened up by the return of five-time major champion Brooks Koepka. This week will see Koepka make his first appearance on the regular PGA Tour since he joined LIV Golf in June 2022. One of golf's recent greats is back on familiar ground, and the world is watching closely.  

But where is his game at right now, and what we can expect to see from the former major champ throughout the rest of the season?

Is Brooks Koepka Still Good Enough?

After a few years with LIV, Koepka's official world ranking has plummeted all the way down to 255th. Although regular LIV events aren't eligible for world rankings points, Koepka has still had the chance to maintain a reasonable ranking through majors, just like Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau have done, but Koepka on the other hand has not.  

When looking at Data Golf’s rankings as well, Koepka's strokes gained rankings aren’t too glimmering either. Currently ranked 153rd in the world for strokes gained, Koepka certainly has some catching up to do.  

Although placing T12 at the US Open last season, Koepka failed to make the cut in the other three majors he competed in. The season before was also underwhelming to say the least for the former world no. 1. He did make the cut in all four majors but failed to enter the top 20 in any of them. 

It is clear that there has been a drastic drop off from the Brooks Koepka we once knew, but just how damaged could his game be ahead of his awaited PGA Tour return? 

Expectations For Koepka at Torrey Pines

Personally, my expectations are low for Koepka this weekend - really low in fact. He isn't in form, hasn't been for quite some time and to top it all off, the entire world of golf has their eyes on him. It would be disappointing should he not make the cut on his first weekend back on the PGA Tour, but that might just be where his game is right now.  

That being said, Koepka will know just how big an occasion this is, and he might just play up to it. You don't win five majors from being weak in the knees and prone to nervous jitters. As likely as he is to miss the cut, I think there's an equal chance he storms it and sends shockwaves through the golfing world! 

Back in 2021, Torrey Pines played host to the US Open, where Koepka carded rounds of 69-73-71-69 to finish two-under and tied for fourth. In 2020 and 2021, the last two times Koepka has competed at the Farmers Insurance Open, he failed to make the cut on both occasions. Hopefully we can see an improved outing from the American this weekend.  

What Can We Expect From Brooks Koepka in 2026?

Firstly, we can rather safely assume that Koepka will soon find himself ascending the world rankings through regular points. But just how far up the rankings can he be expected to climb in his first season back? 

I would be gobsmacked should the Open Championship roll around, and he is not back within the top 100. Ultimately, I'm expecting a fair number of strong finishes and well fought leaderboard places, equalled with weeks that feel like a process. There is no doubt that Koepka can still compete with the best of the best on a regular basis, but finding his feet and reacclimatising to weekly competition is going to need more time.  

All in all, there is a lot of work to be done by Koepka this season. But major champions are a breed of their own, especially the ones that have won five of them. Brooks Koepka returning to the PGA Tour is certain to bring drama and suspense to Torrey Pines this weekend, and we can hope he re-finds his form to create lightning bolts of talking points for the rest of the season.