How likely is Rory McIlroy to win another major in 2026?

Rory McIlroy, off the back of one of his most successful ever seasons, comes into 2026 fresh and hungry for another major title.

Last year he not only grasped the elusive fifth major but claimed the Masters to become only the sixth person in history to complete the grand slam.

Betfair has released odds for the 2025 Ryder Cup winner in this year’s major competitions.

McIlroy has been a consistent performer at the top of the sport for well over a decade, but following a spree of major wins between 2011 and 2014, a fifth major title eluded him.

The Northern Irishman admitted that his Masters win shed the "scar tissue" that built up from near misses, most notably his collapse at Pinehurst in the US Open a year prior. Now he is playing with a newfound freedom unburdened by the expectations of fans, and this promises to be another successful year for the veteran.

Betfair has tipped him at 6/4 to win any major, 7/1 to retain the Masters and 250/1 to win all four majors. 

Here is how McIlroy stacks up at this year’s major championships, and which is most likely to become his sixth title.

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

What Are McIlroy’s Chances at The Masters?

The Masters has not been retained since Tiger Woods managed the feat in 2002, and had only been achieved by Nick Faldo and Jack Nicklaus prior. Whether McIlroy could become the fourth player to don the green jacket in successive years depends on his early season form, which last year was blistering as he picked up wins at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and the Players Championship.

The tournament also favours experienced players, returning every year to Augusta National. This gives McIlroy a natural edge, albeit it's an advantage held by a number of other experienced players in the field.

Overall, his form at the Masters is spotty compared to other majors, finishing T24 in 2024 and second in 2022, either side of missed cuts in 2021 and 2023. 

McIlroy showed his ability to attack Augusta National last year.  A disastrous end to his first round, carding double bogeys on the 15th and 17th holes, put him seven shots off the lead. He managed to haul himself back into contention and win via a playoff with Justin Rose, despite a final round double bogey on the 13th threatening to spurn his major hopes once again.

While distance is not king at the Masters, cashing in birdies and eagles on par 5s is one of the most significant predictors for winning the tournament. This was shown by 2022 and 2023 winners Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who carded -11 and -9 on par 5s respectively. McIlroy certainly has the distance to seize this advantage, carding three eagles on his way to Masters glory.

Could McIlroy Win The PGA Championship Again?

Pennsylvania’s Aronimink Golf Club, the venue for the 2026 PGA Championship, is more of an unknown phenomenon, hosting a men's major championship for the first time since 1962. McIlroy has played just once at this course on tour where he finished T5 at the 2018 BMW Championship after leading the first round.

The PGA Championship can be a bit of a lottery, with lots of players capable of low-scoring rounds. Those putting well who are able to take their birdie chances separate themselves from the pack.

McIlroy has won the tournament twice and has never missed a cut, but this venue presents uncertainties and appears the most likely stage for a new major winner.

Will Rory McIlroy Win The US Open?

McIlroy is often suited to the US Open owing to his distance off the tee, however the host venue Shinnecock Hills was the most recent course where the 36-year-old missed the cut during the 2018 event.

Shinnecock does not play like a classic US Open venue as it is links style rather than parkland, with the treeless course offering no protection from strong winds pushing off the Atlantic Coast. The links style could aid British and Irish players like McIlroy who are more familiar with this test of golf.

Despite being 2nd for driving distance on the PGA Tour last year, McIlroy struggled with his accuracy, placing 177th in one of the few metrics where the Northern Irishman was some way behind the field. Blustery conditions paired with doglegged fairways and unforgiving rough will punish him unless he is able to find more fairways off the tee.

McIlroy will also be faced once again with a New York crowd, and although the tumultuous Ryder Cup atmosphere is a far cry to that of a major championship, it could nonetheless be a factor if he is neck and neck with a US favourite going down the stretch.

Can Rory McIlroy Win The Open Championship in 2026?

Royal Birkdale is another venue McIlroy has played just once in major competitions, placing T4 back in 2017. 

Since 2014 McIlroy has recorded top-ten finishes in seven out of ten tournaments, showing he is comfortable and confident on a British links course.

The flat and open terrain at Birkdale, compared to the undulating fairways at many courses on the Open rotation like Royal St George's and Portrush, could favour the 2014 champion, rewarding his distance with greater forgiveness. 

The competition being hosted outside of his native Ireland may also aid him in claiming his second Open Championship, having admitted that he struggles with the emotional pressure at Royal Portrush, where he finished T7 last year and missed the cut in 2019.

The Final Verdict: Where Will McIlroy Win His Major?

Who knows, McIlroy may have won three majors or none by the time Birkdale rolls round, but a second Open Championship seems the most likely fit for his sixth major title.

Controlling ball flight in windy conditions is one of the greatest tests at the Open. While McIlroy struggled in terms of driving accuracy last year, he was still 4th on tour for strokes gained off the tee, owing to his shot creativity and ability to recover from tough situations. 

Shinnecock feels like a course tailor-made for McIlroy’s skillset, being a links-style course favouring big hitters and creative shot-making. However, due to him missing the cut there in 2018, Birkdale has the edge.