AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview, Picks & Analysis

THE AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of those Marmite tournaments. You love it because two rounds are played at the iconic Pebble Beach, one of the most stunning golf locations on the planet. And you hate it because of the amateurs who hack their way around in the company of the world’s best players, causing rounds of golf to take up to six hours to complete.

But Daniel Berger will not be complaining when he returns to defend the title he won here 12 months ago and he won’t be too upset that many of the Tour’s star names have taken a leave of absence to chase mega-bucks in Jeddah. The American is among the favourites at 12/1 on Betway as he seeks to successfully defend the title.

Coming to the spectacular 18th hole he was tied for the lead, needing a birdie on the par-five to win. Off to his right were the out-of-bounds markers below a row of hedges, where Berger hit his drive in the third round that led to a double bogey. To his left was the Pacific Ocean.

"I was going to go down swinging," he said. Two of the best swings of his career, a driver into the fairway and a 3-wood from 250 yards away in the cool air at sea level, left him 30 feet and two putts away. Berger capped it off with an eagle putt for a 7-under 65 and a two-shot victory over Maverick McNealy.

"To step up there and hit a great drive and then one of the best three woods I've ever hit in my life, and then to make that putt is just as good as it gets for me," Berger said.

He finished at 18-under 270 for his fourth career PGA Tour victory.

Berger started his final round with a four iron to 20 feet for eagle on the par-five second hole to catch up to Jordan Spieth in no time at all. And while the cast of contenders kept changing, Berger was never out of the mix until he had the final say with one last eagle, his fourth of the week.

He won for the second time since the PGA Tour returned to golf in June 2020, starting with a playoff victory at Colonial, where a half-dozen players had a chance to win over the final hour.

This wasn't much different. Spieth went from leading to lagging behind. He started with a two-shot lead and was three shots behind after six holes, wasting the scoring stretch at Pebble Beach. He finished with two birdies for a 70 and tied for third with Patrick Cantlay (68), who made all his putts at Pebble on Thursday. He had 10 birdies in the opening round when he tied the course record with a 62. He made seven birdies and an eagle in two weekend rounds.

Berger saw a leaderboard leaving the 18th green and knew he was tied. He just figured it would be with Nate Lashley, unaware of the sad turn of events on the 16th.

Lashley, playing in the final group with Spieth, nearly holed his wedge on the 11th for a tap-in birdie that took him to 16 under and leading by one shot. He was tied with Berger with three holes to play when Lashley went long on the 16th hole. He pitched out to 12 feet, missed the par putt and then missed the next two putts from the 3-foot range. That gave him a triple bogey from which he could not recover.

McNealy, who once lived in a house near the 15th green at Pebble Beach, quietly made five birdies over his last eight holes. "I had the adrenaline pumping coming down the stretch there and feelings that I hadn't really felt on the golf course in a little while, trying to close this out and give myself a chance," McNealy said.

The last one was on 18 when his eagle putt stopped inches from the cup, giving him a 66 and a tie for the lead that didn't last long. Berger was in the group behind him, and he played the hole to perfection.

"I wanted to win. I didn't want to lose it on the last," Berger said. "I just wanted to go out there and try to hit the best shot that I could and I wasn't going to be conservative on the 3-wood coming in."

The eagle putt was fast and broke both ways and Berger only wanted a two-putt birdie with no stress. That it fell for eagle was a huge bonus.

Spieth finished in the top four for the second week in a row. He hit a hybrid from the rough for a good look at eagle on the second hole and just missed, and then he caught an awkward lie in a fairway bunker on No. 3, his shot low and long over the green, leaving Spieth fearful it was out of play. He made bogey. He made bogey from a bunker on the par-3 fifth, and he had to play out sideways from a fairway bunker on the par-5 sixth, taking birdie out of the equation.

"Really it was just a really poor first six holes. And out here, that's where you can score," Spieth said. "I needed to be a couple under through six, and I was 1 over. And really, that was the difference."

Berger was outside the top 100 in the world when golf returned in 2020 as he tried to come back from wrist injuries. "I think today really solidified my position as one of the best golfers out here and I just need to continue to do the things I've been doing," Berger said. "And I feel like there's no limit to what I can accomplish."

Berger’s biggest threat this week is likely to come from FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay, who is in the form of his life. He won four times in 2021 and has continued his fine form this year. Cantlay is bursting with confidence and has made it clear that he expects to win every time tees it up these days. 

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

The tournament also represents a golden opportunity for some Europeans to make names for themselves on the PGA Tour. Matt Fitzpatrick is still looking for his first victory on American soil. His experience Stateside has largely been pretty disappointing but the man from Sheffield has the game to win anywhere. He was bitterly disappointed to walk away from his second Ryder Cup appearance still looking for his first victory but nobody should underestimate him. By today’s standards he is a short hitter but he more than makes up for his lack of distance with a stunning short game. There are not many better putters anywhere in the world. 

Aaron Rai earned his playing privileges and now faces the difficult task of balancing life between America and the DP World Tour. He played well at the American Express Championship for three rounds before fading on the final day. Rai does things his own way - he plays with two gloves - but he is one of the hardest workers in the game and will surely get his rewards. 

And don’t be surprised to see another big week from Seamus Power, the Irish golfer who is finally making a name for himself in America. Power won for the first time last year and has continued to produce a series of fine performances. Like Rai, he was also in contention at the American Express for 54 holes before a horror start to his final round ended his chances of a second victory. He will be determined to put things right at Pebble Beach.

Tournament Winners

It was won in 2015 by Brandt Snedeker, in 2016 by Vaughn Taylor, in 2017 by Jordan Spieth, in 2018 by Ted Potter Jnr, in 2019 by Phil Mickelson, in 2020 by Nick Taylor and last year by Daniel Berger.

The Courses

The tournament is played at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, all of which offer stunning views of the Pacific Ocean. Pebble Beach is a par 72 measuring just 6,812 yards, Spyglass Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,035 yards and Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 measuring 6,958 yards. The field consists of 156 professionals and 156 amateurs.

Form Guide

Patrick Cantlay has continued where he left off in 2021, when he won four times. He may still be looking for his first victory of 2022 but he showed that he isn’t far away from his best by opening the American Express with a 62 before finishing ninth. He was also fourth at the Tournament of Champions with four rounds in the 60s.

To Win:

Patrick Cantlay. Now a truly world-class player (8/1)

Each Way:

Jordan Spieth. Hoping to prove last season was not a one-off (19/1)

Players to Follow:

Patrick Cantlay. Has not a single weakness (8/1)

Jordan Spieth. It all depends on his ability to keep the ball in play (17/1)

Matt Fitzpatrick. Fabulous short game (29/1)

Seamus Power. A proven winner (26/1)

Four Outsiders to Watch:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Hugely underrated South African (41/1)

Aaron Rai. Nobody works harder (51/1)

Brian Harman. Superb putter (41/1)

Mackenzie Hughes. Has shown some flashes (41/1)

This tour preview article was written in collaboration with Betway.