Tour Championship 2026 preview picks analysis

Scottie Scheffler is of course the man to beat at the season-ending Tour Championship at East Lake, when he will line up in an elite field of 30 golfers who have already secured their places in next season’s Signature Events and will battle it out for a prize of $10m.

After winning The American Express Championship in January on his first appearance of the season it seemed inevitable that he would pick up where he left off last year and add a bucketload of victories to his resume. It didn’t quite turn out that way. He had plenty of chances but failed to finish the job off. And then it all came right for him at the FedEx St Jude, where he finally seemed to remember that he is the world number one and strode to an EIGHT-shot victory.

Going into the BMW Championship he had pocketed more than $20m in prize money and led the standings by a street. Even though he had only won twice, there were five seconds, including The Masters, two thirds and 12 top fives in 18 starts. Can anybody stop him claiming the ultimate prize for a second time?

By his own admission, not Rory McIlroy. After finishing 66th in a field of 69 at the FedEx St Jude, the Northern Irishman said he felt lost. He had not played competitively since the Open Championship in July. And he failed to record a single sub-par round across the four days, struggling to find the sort of golf that will be needed if he is to have any chance of claiming an unprecedented fourth FedEx Cup.

"I'm so far away from where I need to be to even feel like I have a chance. I've just got to keep working and hope it turns around a little bit," said McIlroy. "Obviously I didn't come in here with a ton of reps. It almost felt like the more the week went on the more I felt lost with my golf swing.

"I guess it was nice to shake the rust off a little bit but I'm going to have to work pretty hard to feel like I have any sort of golf game to compete. To me it's more about the execution of what I'm doing right now, and the execution wasn't there."

To be honest, I don’t know why McIlroy would be surprised with his inconsistent form. He simply hasn’t played enough competitive golf in 2026, missing many of the Signature Events and sitting out far too many tournaments. The truth is that apart from his victory at Augusta in April this has been a pretty awful season.

But McIlroy being McIlroy, he then turned up at the BMW Championship and looked like a different golfer.

Twelve months ago there was not a dry eye in the house as Tommy Fleetwood held his nerve to win and finally claim a first PGA Tour title at the 164th time of asking.

Emotion poured out of the 34-year-old Englishman after he holed the winning putt on the 18th green, saluting a crowd who chanted "Tommy, Tommy, Tommy" by raising both arms before letting out a huge roar.

His European Ryder Cup team-mate and friend Justin Rose was greenside to film the final putt and celebrations on his phone as Fleetwood wrapped up a three-shot victory on 18 under par to secure the FedEx Cup and a $10m first prize.

"When you've lost so many times, a three-shot lead down the last doesn't feel like that many," joked Fleetwood, who had tears in his eyes.

"The fans are amazing, it makes me a bit emotional. I'm so lucky with the support I get - it's so special and I hope everyone knows how grateful I am for it."

It was an eighth career title for Fleetwood, whose previous seven came on the DP World Tour, and means he finally shook off the unwanted tag of being the nearly man of the American circuit.

Twice previously last season he had either led, or jointly led after three rounds without completing the victory. He had 30 top-five finishes over his career - six in 2025 alone - which was the most of anyone without a win.

"You just keep learning," said Fleetwood. "This probably wasn't the most comfortable because, as they rack up, you obviously start to think of things. But I feel like I've had a great attitude throughout it all. This is hopefully just one win, the first of many. You cannot win plenty if you don't win the first one."

He became the first player in the FedEx Cup era - which goes back to 2007 - to claim his breakthrough PGA Tour title at the Tour Championship and was the second Englishman to win it, after Rose in 2018.

He was in good shape to challenge Scheffler at the FedEx St Jude but faded badly on the back nine. It has been another season of remarkable consistency for the Englishman but he has so far been unable to add another PGA Tour title to his CV. However, he will return to East Lake with positive memories.

Who else has a realistic chance of winning this week?

Matt Fitzpatrick

(Image Credit: Rolex/Chris Turvey)

Matthew Fitzpatrick has had a season to remember after a spell in the wilderness. He is known as being one of the hardest-working professionals in the game and it has paid off in spades in 2026. He won the Zurich Classic in tandem with his brother Alex, as well as the Valspar and the RBC Heritage, along with a runner-up finish at The Players and Canadian Open, fourth at the Travelers and tied third at the Scottish Open. East Lake is a course that should suit his game.

Cameron Young has been another outstanding player in 2026, winning the Players and the Cadillac Championship, finishing second at The Open, tied third at The Masters and tied third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He waited so long for his first victory but has now acquired a taste for it. He is a wonderful driver of the golf ball and has absolutely no weaknesses. He is also now full of self-belief.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jordan Spieth, in 2016, 2019 and 2022 by Rory McIlroy, in 2017 by Xander Schauffele, in 2018 by Tiger Woods, in 2020 by Dustin Johnson, in 2021 by Patrick Cantlay, in 2023 by Viktor Hovland, in 2025 by Scottie Scheffler and last year by Tommy Fleetwood.

The Course:

East Lake opened in 1908 and was first redesigned by Donald Ross in 1913. Further renovations followed before Rees Jones created the layout we know today back in 2008. The Tour Championship was first played here in 1998. The course is a par 72 measuring 7,346 yards. As the name implies, it features plenty of water hazards. Zach Johnson set the course record of 60 in 2007.

Form Guide:

Can anybody beat Scottie Scheffler? It would take a brave man to bet against him now that he is clearly back to his very best.

Prize Money:

The total prize fund at East Lake is $40m, with the winner collecting $10m and being crowned FedEx Cup champion.

How to Watch:

Thursday, August 27, Sky Sports Golf, 6pm; Friday, August 28, Sky Sports Golf, 6pm; Saturday, August 29, Sky Sports Golf, 5pm; Sunday, August 30, Sky Sports Golf, 5pm.