The US Open 2026 preview, picks & analysis

As we head to Shinnecock Hills for the third major of the season this week I can confidently predict that the course will be making as many headlines as the man who ultimately wins the US Open.

When the tournament was last held here in 2018 it was won by Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson made headlines for hitting his ball while it was still rolling. He was penalised two shots and refused to apologise. If you regularly watch the US Open you will know that the USGA likes to make players suffer, and this year’s edition will be no exception.

Could Brooks Koepka Win Again?

If anybody can complete 72 holes in par or better then they will be walking away with the trophy and it may surprise many to learn that the man I think could be doing so is Koepka - assuming he can successfully overcome the hand injury that saw him withdraw from the Canadian Open at the weekend. Since returning to the PGA Tour after quitting LIV he has, on the face of it, failed to make much of an impact.

However, the stats tell us that he is the best iron player on tour. He is also fifth in strokes gained approach to the green. Where he has struggled has been on the greens. Now you might think that would be a recipe for disaster on the lightning-fast putting surfaces they are certain to face this week but Koepka has been gradually improving and he knows what it takes to win here. Remember that he is a five-time major champion.

Koepka has ben unable to play in any of the signature events in 2026 and that means he has had to play in a lot of run-of-the-mill events in order to ensure that he fulfils his commitment of 15 tournaments. He is currently ranked outside the top 100 in the world rankings and outside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings.

He has missed three cuts but there have been some encouraging performances. He was tied ninth at the Cognizant Classic, tied 13th at the Players, tied 18th at the Valspar, tied 12th at The Masters, tied 11th at the Myrtle Beach Classic and tied 14th at the CJ Cup. He was 55th at the US PGA after a poor final round of 74. And he looked superb at the Canadian Open before his injury.

Tommy Fleetwood is a Contender

Tommy Fleetwood will also return here with some positive memories. In 2018 he closed with a 63 to equal the best-ever score in a US Open and finished second to Koepka. He has a decent record in this tournament, finishing fourth in 2017 and tied fifth in 2022. He has also been runner-up at The Open. There is little doubt that he now carries the mantle of being the best current player never to have won a major - he will fancy his chances this week and also at next month’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, a course he knows like the back of his hand.

Career Grand Slam Chance For Scottie Scheffler

(Image Credit: Rolex/J.D. Cuban)

All eyes will be on Scottie Scheffler. With a victory he will join Rory McIlroy as a Career Grand Slam winner. Forget everything you may have read, forget your preconceptions - Scheffler is having another outstanding season. Yes, he has only one victory to his name but his level of consistency is truly remarkable. There have been several times when he has turned up without his A-game but he still manages to contend almost every time he plays. Remember that he only lost The Masters to McIlroy by a single shot - and that was definitely a week when he did not have his best game.

McIlroy will know that the only way he can contend at Shinnecock Hills is if he has a god week with the driver - and that hasn’t happened too often in 2026. This simply isn’t a course upon which you can score well when playing approach shots from the rough. I would not be at all surprised to see the Northern Irishman struggling.

Who Else Might Triumph at Shinnecock?

Cameron Young is currently walking on air and is arguably the best player in the world on current form. Having waited so long for his maiden PGA Tour success he has now taken to the top of the leaderboard like a duck to water. In 2026 he has won The Players Championship and the Cadillac, both from world-class fields. He was also tied third at both The Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Young is one of the biggest hitters in the game and is also a glorious iron player. If he can keep it on the short stuff he will surely be there or thereabouts.

Speaking of players having dream seasons, it doesn’t get much better than what Matthew Fitzpatrick has achieved in 2026. Little over 12 months ago, the Englishman was in the doldrums, barely inside the top 100 in the world rankings. He is now fourth after winning the Valspar, the RBC Heritage for a second time and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside his younger brother, Alex. He should have also won The Players Championship but a dropped shot at the 72nd hole handed the title to Young. What is most encouraging for Fitzpatrick is that his three wins all came after that bitter disappointment at TPC Sawgrass.

Fitzpatrick is, of course, a former US Open champion so knows all about the challenges he is going to face this week. It also helps that he is one of the best putters in the business. There is a perception that his pitching is a weakness because he plays shots cross-handed. That is a fallacy. He is as good as anybody around the greens.

There are a number of players who must feel that they need a good run at Shinnecock Hills - these include Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau.

DeChambeau failed to rise to the challenge at the US PGA Championship, where he comfortably missed the cut, and although he is a former US Open champion he surely must know that he is going to have to stop thrashing the driver if he is to have any chance of playing all four days.

Jon Rahm finally remembered that he is supposed to be one of the world’s best players at the US PGA Championship. Since joining LIV he had struggled horribly in the majors but a tied second finish reminded us just how good he can be.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jordan Spieth, in 2016 by Dustin Johnson, in 2017 and 2018 by Brooks Koepka, in 2019 by Gary Woodland, in 2020 by Bryson DeChambeau, in 2021 by Jon Rahm, in 2022 by Matt Fitzpatrick, in 2023 by Wyndham Clark, in 2024 by Bryson DeChambeau and last year by JJ Spaun.

The Course:

Shinnecock Hills is a par 70 measuring 7,440 yards. It last hosted the US Open in 2018 when the speed of the greens made all the headlines - and there is no reason to expect anything different this time.

Form Guide:

A host of players will fancy their chances this week, including England’s Matthew Fitzpatrick, a former US Open champion. Brooks Koepka is someone I rate highly going into this week, but if he doesn't sufficiently recover from injury, Scottie Scheffler is looking to compete the career grand slam and although there have been questions about his form I expect him to finish on top of the pile.

Prize Money:

Total prize money is in excess of $21m, with around $4.25m going to the winner, along with 750 FedEx Cup points and 10,000 Race to Dubai points.

How to Watch:

Thursday, June 18, Friday, June 19, Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am; Saturday, June 20, Sky Sports Golf, 3pm; Sunday, June 21, Sky Sports Golf, 4pm.

To Win:

Scottie Scheffler (6/1). Career Grand Slam beckons

Each Way:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (22/1). Will love the challenge

Each Way:

Brooks Koepka (33/1). Fabulous ball striker

Five to Follow:

Scottie Scheffler (6/1). The best player in the world

Matthew Fitzpatrick (22/1). Back to his very best

Brooks Koepka (33/1). Starting to look like his old self

Cameron Young (18/1). Playing wondrous golf

Tommy Fleetwood (18/1). Always there or thereabouts

Five Outsiders to Watch:

Lucas Herbert (175/1). Proven winner

Gary Woodland (100/1). Could surprise a few people this week.

David Puig (110/1). Gifted Spaniard

Patrick Rodgers (350/1). Consistent money-maker

Matthew Jordan (300/1). Brilliant iron player

Odds supplied by Betfred.

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