2023 BMW Championship Preview, Picks & Analysis

AND then there were 50. The BMW Championship at Olympia Fields is the penultimate event on this season’s PGA Tour, with the top 50 in the standings moving on. The goal now is to end the week in the top 30 for the season-ending Tour Championship, after which much gold will be handed out.

All eyes will be on Patrick Cantlay, who will be looking to become the first man to win this tournament three times on the bounce.

Last year he had a huge slice of good fortune, getting a great bounce on the penultimate hole that set up a birdie. He went on to shoot a 69 and enjoy a two-shot victory over Scott Stallings.

He was tied for the lead on the 420-yard 17th hole when he decided to hit driver, and he feared it would get hung up in a series of bunkers down the right side. But the ball landed short of the last, took a big hop over the sand, and tumbled through the first cut and into the fairway just 64 yards from the hole.  Cantlay then hit a glorious approach that skipped and stopped five feet from the flag, holed the birdie putt for the lead and then found the green on the 18th from a fairway bunker.

Two years ago, he made one clutch putt after another to beat Bryson DeChambeau. That gave him the top seed at the Tour Championship, which comes with a two-shot margin with the tournament's "Starting Strokes" scoring, and Cantlay won the FedExCup and its $18 million prize with a one-shot win over Jon Rahm.

By his own incredibly high standards, Cantlay hasn’t had a great season. His best finish was a tied second at the season-opening Shriners Hospitals Open. He was third at the Genesis and RBC Heritage and tied fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Travelers Championship. He has missed only two cuts, with the most recent of those coming at the Scottish Open. There have also been some decent performances at the majors - he was tied 14th at The Masters and US Open, tied ninth at the US PGA and tied 33rd at The Open.

But there have been no wins, and he has attracted a fair amount of criticism for his pace of play, which can be described as funereal at best.

Of course, there will be a world-class field at Olympia Fields. Not only are they battling for FedEx Cup points but several players will be looking to impress Ryder Cup captains Zach Johnson and Luke Donald.

Seamus Power and Justin Rose have both claimed victories on the PGA Tour this season but their best form came early in the year. Rose is a Ryder Cup veteran and Donald would dearly love to have him in his team but if he is to receive a wild-card selection then he is surely going to have to show some form.

Power won the Bermuda Butterfield Championship in October and followed it with a tied third at the World Wide Technology Championship and a tied fifth at the RSM. It took him to the top of the FedEx Cup standings and had him dreaming of unimaginable glory. But it has all been something of a struggle since then - he missed the cut at the US PGA, US Open and The Open and his best finish in 2023 was a tied 13th at the John Deere Classic. If he is to have any chance of making the European team he probably needs to win this week, or go very close to doing so.

Donald will be delighted to see the likes of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood making it this far. They will form the heart and soul of his team.

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

Hatton and Fleetwood have both produced a string of superb performances all year but victory has eluded them in the USA. Fleetwood lost the Canadian Open by the narrowest of margins and must be starting to wonder what on earth he has to do to cross the line. Hatton is, of course, a world-class golfer whose temperament continues to get in his way. He will argue that he needs to get himself fired up to play his best golf but I just don’t buy that. I remain utterly convinced that if he could find a way to take everything in his stride then his results would be even better.

Tournament Winners

It was won in 2015 by Jason Day, in 2016 by Dustin Johnson, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 by Keegan Bradley, in 2019 by Justin Thomas, in 2020 by Jon Rahm and in 2021 and 2022 by Patrick Cantlay.

Form Guide

It seems pretty obvious to say that Scottish Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are the men to beat. They have been the dominant players all year. But if you are looking for a dark horse, keep an eye on Ben An, who is one of the best iron players in the game and is enjoying an excellent spell of form

The Course

Olympia Fields is a par 70 measuring 7,343 yards. Designed by Willie Park Jr, it has hosted the US Open and US PGA Championship. It was lengthened in 2003. It features some significant elevation changes, a meandering creek and hundreds of native oak trees.

Picks & Tips

To win:

Rory McIlroy. Still the star attraction

Each way:

Ben An. In great form

Each way:

Patrick Cantlay. Looking for three on the spin

Five to Follow

Rory McIlroy. It all hinges on his driving

Ben An. Has found something on the greens

Patrick Cantlay. Wonderful golfer, but infuriating

Jon Rahm. Previous winner

Viktor Hovland. Mr Consistent