Valspar Championship Preview, Picks & Analysis

SAM BURNS had been tipped for the top by just about every pundit in the game. Eight times last season he had found himself leading PGA Tour events without being able to seal the deal, but that all changed at the Valspar Championship.

Burns got some help from Keegan Bradley hitting into the water on the 13th hole, and then the 24-year-old from Louisiana took it from there with two big birdies that led to a three-under 68 and a three-shot victory.

Burns won for the first time on the PGA Tour after failing to convert 54-hole leads in the Vivint Houston Open and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.

The victory moved him into the top 50 in the world, 14th in the FedExCup and assured a spot in the U.S. Open, along with his first trip to The Masters. His rise has continued and he is now firmly established as one of the best golfers on the planet.

Burns was wiping away tears when he tapped in for a meaningless bogey on the final hole, especially to see his wife, parents and other family members pour onto the green to celebrate the moment with him.

“I've worked so hard for this moment,” Burns said. “They've all sacrificed so much.”

He had reason to believe this moment could have come sooner. Burns wasted a good start at the season-opening Safeway Open. He closed with a 2-over 72 to tie for seventh in the Houston Open. He lost a two-shot lead at Riviera, coming up one shot short of a playoff.

“Those moments in the past, you really learn a lot,” Burns said. “This week coming down the stretch, I tried to stick to our process.”

Bradley and Burns were tied through 36 holes and 54 holes, and they stayed that way through 12 holes on another blistering day at the Copperhead course. That changed with one swing.

Bradley came up well short on the par-3 13th and went into the water, leading to double bogey. Burns saved par with an 8-foot putt for a two-shot lead.

Burns was three shots ahead through 13 holes on Saturday and he struggled to retain a share of the lead, so he knew what was possible. This time, though, Bradley had no chance.

Burns followed with a wedge that stopped next to the hole for a tap-in birdie on the par-5 14th. He put Bradley away with a 7-iron to 18 feet and a birdie putt that brought the most emotion he showed all day, a hard fist slam.

Burns also won the Sanderson Farms Championship in October and lost the WGC St Jude Invitational in a playoff and is now setting his sights on adding a major to his impressive CV. 

He will be back at Innisbrook to defend his title in a field that also includes Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, who missed the event last year because of injury, Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Korkrak, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Bubba Watson.

Burns missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational but bounced back to form with a tied ninth finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational played at Bay Hill, one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Those missed cuts were a rare blip in what is turning out to be another fine season for the young American. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October and then finished fifth at the CJ Cup, seventh at the Houston Open, third at the Hero World Challenge, second at the QBE Shootout and 19th at the Tournament of Champions.

Just 25 years of age, Burns has comfortably established himself in the top 20 in the world rankings. He is a certainty to make the US Ryder Cup team next year and will fancy his chances of winning The Masters at Augusta.

Johnson is, of course, a former Masters champion but he has struggled of late. A former world number one, Johnson has won 24 times on the PGA Tour but, for the first time since 2008, he failed to win a tournament in 2021. He has struggled with injuries and Covid and has seen his world ranking tumble. He has played little golf this season and, incredibly, stood in 200th place in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of the Players Championship but shot a spectacular final round of 63 at Sawgrass.

Oosthuizen was a model of consistency in 2021, achieving everything other than a tournament victory. His performances in the majors were nothing short of remarkable. He finished in a tie for 26th place at Augusta, was joint runner-up to Phil Mickelson at the US PGA Championship, was second at the US Open and joint third at The Open after leading going into the final round. 

The South African also had two other runner-up finishes and missed just one cut in 21 starts. Thus far he has been unable to recapture that sort of form this season. Last year his putting statistics were incredible. He is a glorious ball striker with one of the best swings in golf but, incredibly, he has yet to win on the PGA Tour.

Tournament Winners

It was won in 2015 by Jordan Spieth, in 2016 by Charl Schwartzel, in 2017 by Adam Hadwin, in 2018 and 2019 by Paul Casey, and last year by Sam Burns. There was no tournament in 2020 - it was cancelled because of the global pandemic.

The Course

The Copperhead Course at TPC Innisbrook is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards. Famous for the fearsome Snake Pit, the course features tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain and a great deal of water.

Form Guide

Dustin Johnson has struggled of late but he likes Innisbrook and, with The Masters just around the corner, will be looking to rediscover his best form. Sam Burns will be looking to emulate Paul Casey by making a successful defence and his recent form indicates that he has every chance of doing so. Brooks Koepka has had a strange season, missing four cuts, but he nearly won the Phoenix Open and can never be written off.

To Win:

Sam Burns. World-class

Each Way:

Brooks Koepka. Fit and nearly back to his best

Golfers to Follow:

Sam Burns. Has no weaknesses

Brooks Koepka. Could do with another win

Dustin Johnson. Must find his form at some point

Outsiders:

Brandt Snedeker. Hard to believe it is so long since his last victory

Tommy Fleetwood. Still looking for his best

Ryan Brehm. Secured his playing privileges with a big win in Puerto Rico

Gary Woodland. Getting back to his best