WGC Matchplay preview, picks & analysis

Post by Sports Writer, Derek Clements

VICTOR DUBUISSON announced himself on the world stage at last year's world matchplay championship in Arizona. It wasn't so much that he reached the final as the manner of the incredible recovery shots he played in that final against Jason Day before eventually losing in extra holes.

Dubuisson captured people's imagination because he played the game in a manner that was reminiscent of the late, great Seve Ballesteros. The Frenchman is something of an enigma, refusing to talk about his childhood but darkly hinting that all was not well. He is, of course, entitled to his privacy and in some ways it is reassuring that he hasn't felt the need to reveal every spit and cough of his past.

He made his Ryder Cup debut last year and there have been plenty of stirring performances along the way, but he needs a win to move to the next level. And he will be a factor at a new venue, Harding Park, San Francisco, and a tournament with a new name - it is now the WGC Cadillac World Matchplay.

The top 64 players in the world rankings get an invitation, which means there was no place in the field for Tiger Woods. The format has also changed. Previously a straight knockout event, there are now 16 four-man pools, so everybody is guaranteed at least three matches before heading home. The top player in each pool will then progress to the last 16, where it reverts to knockout matchplay. It means that to win this tournament a player will have to come through seven matches.

And that should offer some clues. You should be looking for not only the best, but the fittest players if you are trying to find a likely winner.

Rory McIlroy is one of the fittest golfers on the planet, but he faces a tough pool that also features Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker and Billy Horschel. Jordan Spieth, the world number two, is alongside Lee Westwood. Dubuisson's group features Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel and the Australian Matt Jones.

I have a strong feeling for Paul Casey, who is in a group with Adam Scott, still struggling on the greens, Chris Kirk and Francesco Molinari. And Henrik Stenson may not feel unduly troubled about facing Bill Hass, Brendon Todd and John Sendon.

For me, the best pool is the one featuring JB Holmes, Brooks Koepka, Marc Warren and Russell Henley - it would be no surprise to me to see the winner of the event coming from that group. The strength of Holmes and Koepka are well enough known, but Henley is a ferocious competitor and Warren has finally found the inner calm to feel at home at this level.

There are several no-shows, including Phil Mickelson, but that has allowed golfers such as Miguel Angel Jimenez, Molinari and Mikko Ilonen to get in. And Andy Sullivan, of England, must be walking on air to find himself in such exalted company - but he deserves every second of his time in San Francisco.

So how do you pick a winner in a format in which the man who comes out on top is seldom the golfer who has played the best all week? You stick in a pin in the draw - and this is what the Clements pin came up with:

WGC Matchplay Betting picks

Winner: Rory McIlroy 10/1 Sorry to be so predictable

Each-way: Jordan Spieth 10/1 Fierce competitor who is young and as fit and eager as they come

Each-way: Paul Casey 40/1 Can be a birdie machine

WGC Matchplay Fantasy picks:

Rory McIlroy 10/1 Obviously

Jordan Spieth 10/1 You'd be mad not to pick him

Paul Casey 40/1 Ready to win again

Brooks Koepka 45/1 I've got a feeling he may spring a surprise or two

Justin Rose 20/1 Tends to put two or three very good weeks together

Bubba Watson 25/1 Be honest - would you want to face him in matchplay

Patrick Reed 25/1 Has a relatively straightforward pool

Shane Lowry 80/1 Capable of shooting the lights out

Henrik Stenson 18/1 This course could be made for him

Dustin Johnson 20/1 Could overpower course ands opponent