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The Open preview, picks & analysis

By: Golf Shake | Thu 09 Jul 2015


Post by Sports Writer Derek Clements


WHO'S a silly boy then? Rory McIlroy's ankle injury, sustained while playing football with some friends, means he misses the Scottish Open, The Open and probably the US PGA Championship. He is the first Open champion not to defend his title since Ben Hogan, but Hogan chose not to cross the Atlantic.

Even before McIlroy pulled out, all eyes were certain to be on Jordan Spieth and his attempt to win the first three majors of the season, having already tucked away The Masters and the US Open. Spieth must now be rubbing his hands with glee after learning of McIlroy's fate, all the more so because it gives him the opportunity to replace him at the top of the rankings.


McIlroy, along with Spieth was the clear favourite for the Claret Jug

Mcilroy ankle injury


McIlroy would have gone into The Open at St Andrews as a red-hot favourite. The Old Course is made for him, especially if the wind fails to blow for four days. But while Spieth will be celebrating, it robs the rest of us of the likelihood of finally seeing these two brilliant young golfers slugging it for the season's third major - and it greatly increases Spieth's chances of winning a third successive major.

There is not the slightest doubt in my mind that the American will "get" the nuances of the Old Course and master St Andrews from the outset. For a start, his bad drive is to the left - there is no trouble on the left hand side of the Old Course. And his greatest strength is his putting - nowhere is this more important that on this famous old links. In other words, if it is made for McIlroy, then Spieth will also be unable to believe his good fortune when he sees the place for the first time.

The question is: who can beat him? Well, I have a funny feeling that most of the cast that challenged for the US Open at Chambers Bay will be there or thereabouts once more.

Dustin Johnson is not only the longest hitter in the game, but he is also becoming one of the most accurate, and that is a formidable combination on a course that is likely to be playing fairly short. If he can put all his near misses out of his mind and get his wedges and putter going, this could be the week that the immensely talented 30 year old finally secures his first major. Let's just hope he doesn't have two putts from above the hole to win on the final day.

Louis Oosthuizen loves this place. He won by seven strokes when The Open was last played at St Andrews in 2010, and he is a better golfer now than he was back then. The amiable South African has had way more than his fair share of injuries but he at last appears to be 100% fit and his performance at Chambers Bay has filled him with confidence. For 54 holes, he was simply sensational, and he played the final nine holes in 29 shots, finishing one stroke behind Spieth. And that after opening with a 77.

I also expect big things from Branden Grace, another South African who also knows what it is like to win here - he is a former Dunhills Links champion, and has proved that he can cope with whatever the Scottish weather can throw at him. He may not win this time but he is a definite Open champion of the future. And Shane Lowry falls into the same category. The Irishman seems to improve with every passing week, and has a great chance of opening his major account at St Andrews. He is a great ball striker and he also possesses a wondrous short game.

Many people fancy Justin Rose's chances, and logic dictates that he should be there or thereabouts. However, apart from his fifth-place finish as a 17-year-old, his Open record is dire. Rose has a US Open to his credit and has won more PGA Tour titles than any other Englishman, and he has also proved to himself that he can play well on links courses, winning the Scottish Open at Royal Aberdeen last year. There is no doubt that his problems with The Open are between his ears, but he comes into this championship in fabulous form, and it would be a foolish person who writes off his chances.

Chris Wood has two top-five finishes to his name in the world's oldest major and loves The Open more than other event. He recently found his way back into the winners' circle and will be looking forward to St Andrews. The same applies to Tommy Fleetwood, who learnt to play the game on the links courses around Southport. Fleetwood will hope that the wind blows. If it does, he could spring a surprise.

And if you are looking for a dark horse, you could do a heck of a lot worse than invest a few bob on James Morrison and Francesco Molinari. Morrison is having the season of his life, having won once and contended regularly. He produced a final round of 67 at Golf National in the French Open, without dropping a single shot on one of the most difficult courses in Europe. And Molinari has become a money-making machine who seems to finish in the top 10 every time he tees up.

Derek Clements  Open Championship Betting Picks

To win: Jordan Spieth 6/1 It is difficult to see how he can't win

Each way: Louis Oosthuizen 25/1 In form and due another major

Each way: Shane Lowry 45/1 This could be his week

Derek Clements Open Championship Fantasy picks

Jordan Spieth. Can't see past him

Louis Oosthuizen. Has great memories of the Old Course

Shane Lowry. I have a feeling in my water

Dustin Johnson. Could reduce the course to pitch and putt

Francesco Molinari. Mr Consistency

James Morrison. In the form of his life

Rickie Fowler. Desperate to get US Open flop out of his system

Jason Day. Will be there or thereabouts

Branden Grace. Past winner on the Old Course

Justin Rose. Due a good run at The Open


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