Predicting 2017 in Golf

With both the PGA and European Tours kicking into action for 2017, it's a natural time for a look ahead to what we can expect to witness this year. Rory McIlroy is armed with new clubs and a refreshed mindset, seeking to reclaim the mantle of world number one from Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, while Japanese star Hideki Matsuyama looks set to join that group at the top. 14-time major champion Tiger Woods continues his latest (and surely final) comeback to the game that he once dominated, which is set to be the defining narrative as we approach the Masters at Augusta National. 

Those are the stories, but what are the likely resolutions? We have brought together three of our writers to tackle the big questions and provide their thoughts on which players are to secure the most prestigious titles in golf. Sports Journalist Derek Clements, Golf Writer Josh Carr, and Golfshake's Content Editor and Writer Kieran Clark, sat down to make their projections for what they expected to see this year.

It's been almost three years since Rory won a major. Will he rectify that (at the Masters?) and return to number one in 2017?

(Kieran) "When you look through the great names of the past, I think Rory is arguably the most balanced of the leading players that we’ve seen, with the exception of Jack Nicklaus. That will allow him to endure at the top longer than most, and he has typically been able to recover from a comparatively lean spell of results with a sudden flourish, as we saw last year during the FedEx Cup. That is just an indicator of what we can expect in 2017.

"I remain convinced that Rory is the world’s best player when on form. He has that intangible ability to produce extraordinary shots at pivotal moments, just as we witnessed last year during the Irish Open and Tour Championship. He is a more seasoned professional now, with a decade of experience, and with life away from the course going immaculately, there is a quiet serenity and comfort to McIlroy’s demeanour that should intimidate his fellow competitors.

"In terms of major championships, the PGA at Quail Hollow seems naturally to be the best fit, but his record at Augusta National has improved with time, and he seems in position to have another assault at the Masters in April. There are no certainties, of course, but I believe that we’ll see McIlroy restored as world number one and the man to beat each week. He may just have to wait another year for that Green Jacket, however."

(Josh) "I think Rory is always a contender in the majors, although his form last year was very hit and miss. After finishing T10 at the Masters, he then missed the cut at the US Open. Then at The Open Championship he finished T5, but followed that up by missing the cut at the PGA Championship.

"If Rory can be consistent with the putter this year then he will definitely be a contender around Augusta. As for returning to number one, that’s a different story. There are so many golfers battling for that place such as Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day etc and I think Rory has to be more consistent if he is to regain the number one spot and, more importantly, retain it."

(Derek) "Sorry, but Rory's wait for the Green Jacket will continue. Part of the problem is that he now tries too hard at Augusta, but the real thing that goes against him at The Masters is that, in the end, it all comes down to a putting competition, and McIlroy's putting just isn't good enough. Or at least it isn't consistently good enough. I can't see beyond him for the US PGA Championship, however, as he adores the venue, Quail Hollow, and has won there twice before. He could also figure in the shake-up at Birkdale but if the wind blows then you can write off his chances there too. He will win on both the PGA and European Tours and he will finish 2017 as the world No 1."

Tiger's made his comeback, but can he still win on the PGA Tour? How do you think he'll perform in 2017?

(Josh) "I think you’d be crazy to say that Tiger can’t win on the PGA Tour again. He’s only 41 years old and if he can keep fit, then I think we’ll definitely see Tiger win again.

"Tiger returned at the Hero World Challenge after 455 days out and in my eyes, it was a complete success. He got through 72 holes, plus practice rounds and a Pro-Am uninjured and played some fantastic shots, reminiscent of the old Tiger we all came to admire. His return more than helps in terms of viewing figures too. I for one probably wouldn’t have taken notice of the Hero World Challenge, if it wasn’t for the fact Tiger was back."

(Derek) "Without question, Tiger will win again in 2017 - if he remains fit. And that remains the great unknown. He needs to resist the urge to smash the ball as hard as he can. After all, he still hits it plenty long enough to compete with the young guns on the PGA Tour. His iron play at the Hero World Challenge was as good as ever it was when he was in his prime. But he needs to keep the ball in play and he needs to hole putts. I expect him to win two or three times, but he will not win a major. Expect him to contend at Augusta though."

(Kieran) "I believe that (just about) anything is possible with Tiger. Good and bad. His comeback at the Hero Challenge was encouraging on a number levels, not least due to the number of birdies he made and having played all four rounds without any visible repercussions. What stood out to me was the obvious pleasure and enjoyment that he took from the experience of playing competitively again. 

(Derek) "It has to be Hideki Matsuyama. It would be a huge surprise if he doesn't win his first major this season. He has been on a sensational run of form and, despite that pause at the top of the backswing, looks the complete package. He is sneaky long, but the key clubs in his bag are his putter and his temperament - he never dwells on poor shots and he never gives up. Japan has been looking for a superstar for years - it has finally found one. What makes his performances all the more admirable is that every single shot he takes is under the scrutiny of the vast Japanese media contingent that follows him around the globe. To live in a goldfish bowl is not easy - just ask Tiger Woods. But Matsuyama seems untroubled by it. A credit to himself, his family and his country."

(Kieran) "Understandably, it seems that Hideki Matsuyama is the popular answer. He’s enjoyed a dominant run of results over the winter, and he now looks set to fulfil the potential that has long been obvious. It would almost be a surprise if he wasn’t to secure Japan’s first major in 2017, which would be a monumental event for that nation of golf fanatics.

"However, being the romantic at heart that I am, this will finally be the year that Sergio Garcia claims one of golf’s most prestigious championships, and he’ll achieve it at Royal Birkdale. Engaged to be married and happy away from the course, a more relaxed Spaniard will follow in the footsteps of Henrik Stenson to have that breakthrough later in his career. And it will be great to see."

(Josh) "Hideki Matsuyama – His form at the end of 2016 and coming into 2017 has been outstanding and if he keeps it up he will definitely be a contender in the majors. The fact that his worst finish this season is second says it all really.

"As for which major it is, I would have to say The Masters. It is the first major of the year and if Matsuyama can keep up his current form, he will go into The Masters as one of the favourites and I have every confidence he’ll be putting on his first green jacket come the end of that week."

Will this be a successful year for the European Tour with the new Rolex Series?

(Kieran) "It depends how success is quantified. It’s been obvious for some years that there are essentially two European Tours, the one Rory McIlroy plays, and the other that Graeme Storm (for example) competes on. Keith Pelley deserves credit for further enhancing the bigger tournaments on the circuit, but he has also widened that already cavernous divide between those two increasingly disparate sides.

"Hopefully the Rolex events will encourage stronger fields, but for the European Tour to flourish on a deeper level in future, more cohesive relationships with the Asian Tour and PGA Tour of Australasia should be created to form a competitive international circuit outside the United States."

(Josh) "I don’t know much about the Rolex Series but hopefully it can help viewing figures and ultimately participation in the game. If the prize funds are bigger, you will probably see the bigger names playing, which is what every golf fan wants really. Hopefully it will get more people interested in the European Tour too because at the moment, in my opinion, viewers tend to prefer the PGA Tour."

(Derek) "Keith Pelley, the European Tour's chief executive, is to be applauded for increasing prize-money at a time of uncertainty for both golf and for the global economy. The guy is an innovator and he is not afraid to try things, even if they don't always work. He wants golf played under floodlights - it is not going to happen, but there is room for some exhibition events under the lights. And allowing members of the public to play a hole with their heroes in tournament play may upset the purists, but everybody else loved it.

"It takes more than money to create success, but what a run of tournaments we are in for - the French Open, Irish Open and Scottish Open will all be offering bumper cheques to the winners in the run-up to The Open, and it could turn out to be an astonishingly rewarding period for somebody. It is easy to believe that the usual suspects will hoover up all the money, and it is fair to say that Rory McIlroy will be the man to beat at the Irish Open, but wouldn't it be good to see a fresh new face emerge and cope under pressure?"

Do you see Jason Day and Jordan Spieth returning to major winning form this year?

(Josh) "This is a tough one. I think both players will be up there in the majors, but of the two I’d say that Jason Day is more likely to win another major. For me, he is that little bit more consistent than the American. Spieth’s chicken wing swing doesn’t do it for me, but then again, he is deadly with the short stick. I’m going to have to go yes for Jason Day and no for Jordan Spieth."

(Derek) "Spieth will win The Masters, and that will not be his only victory. Day may be a different proposition. At times he gives a pretty good impression of being a hypochondriac - his latest ailment is a dodgy back, and for somebody who hits the ball as hard as he does, back problems are seriously bad news. There is also a suspicion among those in the know that Day thinks too much about the game. He has a wonderful golf swing - why doesn't he just go out there and trust it? And why, oh why, does he take so long to hit a golf shot? 

"For Spieth it is all about confidence, and we saw that starting to return when he won in Australia at the end of 2016. He is, quite simply, the best putter the game has ever seen, but last year he suffered because he hit far too many wayward drives and crooked iron shots. The signs are that he has now accepted he cannot hit the ball 320 yards and that he is playing within himself again. Watch him go in 2017."

(Kieran) "With his recurrent injury and health problems, it’s difficult to predict anything with Jason Day, but at his best he is almost a combination of McIlroy and Spieth, the archetypal modern golfer, and that makes him a constant threat. However, his longer-term future is less certain, and I see him sliding down the rankings in the coming months, overtaken by the likes of the Northern Irishman and Hideki Matsuyama.

"Jordan Spieth, on the other hand, may have fewer tools than the Australian, but he has that enviable ability to score and get the most from his game. I think he’ll be a multiple winner again on the PGA Tour, and he will be a contender in the majors, not least at Augusta, where he will be seeking redemption after his dramatic collapse last April."

Who are the players to look out for in 2017?

(Derek) "Jon Rahm could be the next big thing. He gained his PGA Tour card from a limited number of starts and could easily have won at least twice. The good news is that he is a Spaniard, which means he will be a member of the next European Ryder Cup team. If you missed him last year, make sure you see this guy in action during 2017. He will rocket up the world rankings very quickly. While Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal achieved their success with sublime short games and imagination, and Sergio Garcia has kept his place in the top 20 of the world rankings with brilliant iron play, Rahm has the lot.

"Thomas Pieters. That the big-hitting Belgian has the game is not in question. He also has the ideal temperament to succeed at the very top of the game. But he wouldn't be the first to have it all but fail to make it to the next level. There is something different about him though. He played like a seasoned pro at the Ryder Cup, handled the pressure brilliantly and did his best to silence the American fans. 

"Look out, too for Bernd Ritthammer. Who? Something of a late developer, the 29-year-old German won three times on the Challenge Tour in 2016 and ascribes his upturn in fortunes to working with a sports psychologist and a new fitness coach.

"And I just have a feeling in my water about another young American. Ollie Schniederjans is 23 years old, stands 6ft 1in and is 12st of solid muscle. He finished 12th at The Open in 2015 as an amateur and made the cut at the US Open the same year. He has the game and he has a wonderful swing."

(Kieran) "Justin Thomas has already shown his potential to become a contender this year, but I see him continuing to win regular tournaments, rather than a major in 2017. That may have to wait until a later date, but there is much to admire about his game. Daniel Berger is another young American player to follow, who I expect to win on the PGA Tour in the coming months.

"Elsewhere, I’m intrigued to see how Alex Noren follows his incredible 2016 in Europe. Having overcome his injury problems, the Swede is something of a late bloomer, and his next step is to contend in the game’s greatest championships. Matt Fitzpatrick quietly goes about his business, and it’s easy to forget his triumph in Dubai, and I see him edging closer to the world’s top ten."

(Josh) "On the European Tour, I would have to go with Thomas Detry. Having set the record for the largest winning victory on the Challenge Tour and the joint lowest winning score, Detry secured his European Tour card at Tour School at the end of 2016. Since then he has had three top-10 finishes on the European Tour and is only 24-years-old. I played with him in the Challenge Tour ProAm at Heythrop Park, where he set the records mentioned earlier, and it was clear to see he is a massive talent.

"On the PGA Tour, I’m going to have to go with both Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed. Thomas has been performing well of late, including a win at the Tournament of Champions recently. If he can keep his driver straight, then he will definitely do well this year. As for Reed, he was America’s star man at the Ryder Cup and showed just what a talent he is. He just needs to stop being so cocky until he can back up his words with numerous PGA Tour victories."

What are you most looking forward to seeing in 2017?

(Kieran) "As always, it’s the major championships. They’re the titles that still matter, and those that define the year and a player’s career. When we reflect at the end of 2017, the conversation won’t be about the rich but empty FedEx Cup or Race to Dubai, but who triumphed in those big four events.

"It would also be remiss to say I’m not intrigued to see how Tiger’s comeback fits in with the contemporary game, and that will be the early plotline that nominates heading into Augusta."

(Josh) "The real return of Tiger. It’s as simple as that. We all want to know if he can start performing at the level he was at previous and whether other players will crack under the pressure if they know Tiger is hot on their heels going into the back-nine on a Sunday."

(Derek) "The battle for number one. With McIlroy, Spieth and Matsuyama at the peak of their powers, it is going to be fascinating to see who finishes the year on top, especially when you throw Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Adam Scott and the redoubtable Patrick Reed into the mix. And how can we not be excited about the prospect of Tiger playing a full programme again?"

2017 will be the year of...which player do you think will be dominating the headlines 12 months from now?

(Josh) "Tiger Woods. Whether it’s because he’s winning again, or because he’s doing awful on the PGA Tour, you’re bound to see Tiger’s name sprawled across the back pages of newspapers. As much as it pains me to say it, this could also be the year of Patrick Reed. He definitely has talent, he just needs to produce it on a more regular basis."

(Derek) "If Hideki Matsuyama can maintain his form and his focus, there is no knowing what he could achieve. He contends every time he plays but the most important thing to know about him is that he has learnt how to win - and he loves it. He never appears to get too excited, keeps his emotions in check, and his rhythm never changes. You may see many more golfers adopting that pause at the top of the backswing before too long."

(Kieran) "Tiger Woods remains an extraordinary driving force within the game, and will be the leading name in some regard, whether it be through excitement at his victorious comeback, or penning the obituary to a generation-defining career. Rory McIlroy will also move at least one step closer to becoming the most successful player in the history of European golf."

Winner Predictions: 

The Masters: (KC) Adam Scott, (JC) Hideki Matsuyama, (DC) Jordan Spieth

The U.S. Open: (KC) Hideki Matsuyama, (JC) Patrick Reed, (DC) Hideki Matsuyama

The Open: (KC) Sergio Garcia, (JC) Paul Casey, (DC) Patrick Reed

The PGA: (KC) Rory McIlroy, (JC) Jason Day, (DC) Rory McIlroy

European Tour Race to Dubai: (KC) Rory McIlroy, (JC) Henrik Stenson, (DC) Rory McIlroy

PGA Tour FedEx Cup: (KC) Jordan Spieth (JC) Patrick Reed, (DC) Rory McIlroy