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Deutsche Bank Championship Preview, Picks & Analysis

By: Golfshake Editor | Mon 29 Aug 2016


Post by Sports Writer Derek Clements


AND then there were 100. The top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings has now been whittled down to 100 as the PGA Tour's elite players head to TPC Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship, and now it is getting serious. All of those in the top 40-50 are just about assured of their places in the BMW Championship, when a further 30 players will see their season come to an end.

After that, it comes down to the top 30 heading to East Lake for the Tour Championship, with a $10m jackpot awaiting one lucky man.

The way the playoffs are weighted, anybody in the field could still walk away with the top prize. I am still waiting for somebody to explain to me how it is possible that Jason Day could win two of the four events last season and finish third in the final standings while Jordan Spieth, who didn't finish in the top 10 in any of the first three events but won the Tour Championship could be crowned FedEx champion. It makes no sense whatsoever. 

Andy, this week's winner will have to make do with a paltry $1.5m. There is no Danny Willett, who has opted to play in the European Masters and could well pay by losing his place in the top 100. Others who need a good week include the likes of Billy Horschel, a previous FedEx Trophy winner, Paul Casey, Kevin Streelman, Martin Laird and Jim Furyk, who still harbours hopes of sneaking into Davis Love's Ryder Cup team.

My feeling is that the man to watch is Scotland's Russell Knox, who has won twice this season and has had four other top 10 finishes. Knox does not hit the ball a long way by today's standards, but he hits it plenty far enough and he hits it straight. There has been a suggestion from some critics that his putting is his weakness, but you don't win tournaments on the PGA Tour unless you can putt.

So who do you think has had the best season in terms of top 10 finishes? I will put you out of your misery. It is Dustin Johnson, and by quite some way. The US Open champion has two victories and a further 12 top 10s. He has only played in 19 tournaments, so that means he has finished 11th or worse only five times in 2016.

With the major monkey finally off his back, Johnson now looks utterly relaxed (not that he hasn't always). He hits the ball a mile and normally hits it straight. Where he has taken big steps forward in 2016 is with his short irons and, crucially, his putting. He definitely isn't finished with the winners' circle yet and is the man to beat at TPC Boston. He didn't have the best of weeks at the Barclays, but Johnson simply doesn't have two bad weeks on the trot these days.

The only men who come close to the Dustinator are Day (two wins, nine top 10s), and Patrick Reed (one win and nine top-10 finishes) and Matt Kuchar (nine top-10 finishes). Day began the year like an express train, but he has come off the rails recently. The big surprise has been Reed, who didn't win his first of the year until the Barclays last week and now leads the FedEx Cup standings. Kuchar, meanwhile, will probably go close again, but don't bet your life savings on him breaking his duck.

Phil Mickelson and Kevin Na are two more well-placed golfers still looking for their first win of 2016, and you can be fairly confident that one or other, or both, will be there or thereabouts again before the season is over. Na has finally laid his demons to rest and just looks like a very solid, all-round golfer.

And then there is Spieth. The perception is that the young American has had a poor year, and if you judge it by the standards of what he achieved in 2015 then yes, he has. But that was an exceptional season and he has still won two tournaments, finished second in The Masters and had six top-10 finishes. His swing is beginning to look better and if he finds the fairways, and putts the way we all know he can then he will be a very hard man to beat.

I keep expecting Rory McIlroy to salvage something from what has been a poor season, and he might yet do precisely that. At least he has identified that he had to do something about his putting and has changed his putter and hired a specialist putting coach. He has some work to do, but he is beginning to look more comfortable on the greens. Could this be his week?

If you are looking for a dark horse to win the whole shooting match, somebody to appear from nowhere in the manner that Billy Horschel did two years ago, I suggest that you put a few pence on either Daniel Berger or Justin Thomas. Both players won for the first time this season. Berger has an idiosyncratic golf swing and is always likely to be inconsistent, but when he is good he is very good. Thomas, on the other, does everything right and is a future major champion.

Deutsche Bank Championship Picks & Tips

To Win: Dustin Johnson. A winning machine

Each Way: Justin Thomas. Fantastic prospect

Each Way: Russell Knox. Still playing beautiful golf

Deutsche Bank Championship Fantasy Picks

Dustin Johnson. Due another win

Justin Thomas. Wants to make the US Ryder Cup team

Russell Knox. Looking for third victory of the season

Rory McIlroy. Would give a lot for a BIG week 

Rickie Fowler. Determined to make up for Barclays disappointment 

Jason Day. Simply the best

Daniel Berger. Capable of stunning scoring 

Kevin Na. Mr Consistency

Jordan Spieth. Getting close to last year's form

Patrick Reed. Playing some wonderful golf

 


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Tags: PGA Tour FedEx Cup



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